Individuele besluitvorming Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Leerdoelen De uitgangspunten en zes stappen van het model voor rationele besluitvorming te beschrijven Drie methoden te noemen om de creativiteit van individuen te stimuleren Acties van de rationeel beperkte beslisser te beschrijven Een definitie te geven van heuristiek en uit te leggen hoe beslissingen daardoor vertekend worden Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Leerdoelen Escalatie van inzet te verklaren Vier stijlen van besluitvorming te noemen De implicaties van fases in morele ontwikkeling voor besluitvorming uiteen te zetten Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Het rationele besluitvormingsproces Probleem Bedenk alternatieven A1 A2 A3 A4 An + criteria Ken de criteria een gewicht toe T E C H Bepaal de Keuze Bereken optimale beslissing Definieer probleem An optimizing decision maker is rational and makes consistent, value-maximizing choices within specific constraints. The six-step model supports the decision-making process. 1. Define the problem. 2. Identify decision criteria. 3. Weigh the criteria. 4. Generate alternatives. 5. Rate each alternative on each criterion. 6. Compute the optimal decision. Toets alternatieven aan criteria Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Uitgangspunten van het model Permanente voorkeuren Het probleem is duidelijk afgebakend Permanente voorkeuren De opties zijn bekend Geen tijds- of kostenbeperkingen The model contains six assumptions. Problem clarity means the problem is clear and unambiguous. Known options mean that all relevant criteria and viable alternatives can be identified. Clear preferences show that criteria and alternatives have been ranked and weighted. Constant preferences reflect constant criteria and stable weights over time. No time or cost constraints allow for full information about criteria and alternatives. Maximum payoff means a decision maker will pick the alternative with the highest yield. Duidelijke voorkeuren Maximaal rendement Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Creativiteit Creatief Creativiteit potentieel Creativiteit stimuleren The rational decision maker uses creativity to combine ideas in novel ways and make unique associations between these ideas. Creative Potential. Most people have the potential to be creative problem solvers but have not learned how to unleash it. Highly creative individuals are not necessarily super intelligent, but they do possess certain characteristics: such as, self-confidence, independence of judgment, intuition, broad interests, curiosity, tolerance for ambiguity, willingness to take risks, and persistence. Methods for Stimulating Individual Creativity. Organizations can encourage creativity in five ways: (1) promote and reward risk taking, (2) minimize boundaries, (3) allow for individual autonomy, (4) provide resources, and (5) moderate work-load and time pressures. A supportive work climate includes the five characteristics above. What else can be done to enhance creativity? Believe that you can be creative. Do not begin by searching for the right answer. Avoid being too logical and rational. Do not always be concerned with practical solutions. Ask “What if?” questions. Do not be afraid to fail. Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Model van beperkte rationaliteit Ontdek de behoefte aan een besluit Stel bevredigende criteria Stel een beperkte set van alternatieven vast Selecteer de eerste keuze die “goed genoeg” is Meet de alternatieven a.d.h.v. de criteria When confronted by a complex problem, most people will reduce the problem to its simplest level and satisfice by seeking solutions that are satisfactory and sufficient. Eschewing full rationality, they operate within bounded rationality and construct simplified models to extract the essential features of the problem and then behave rationally within the limits of the simple model. Here is how the bounded rationality typically operates. Once a problem is identified, the search for criteria and alternatives begins. But the list of criteria is likely to be far from exhaustive. The decision maker will identify a limited list made up of choices that are easy to find or highly visible. In most cases, they will represent familiar criteria and tried-and-true solutions. Once this limited set of alternatives is identified, the decision maker will begin reviewing them. But the review will not be comprehensive--not all alternatives will be evaluated carefully. Instead, the decision maker will begin with alternatives that differ only to a small degree from the choice currently in effect. Following along familiar and well-worn paths, the decision maker will review alternatives only until one that is “good enough” (that meets acceptable levels of performance) can be found. The first alternative that meets the “good enough” criterion ends the search. So the final solution represents a satisficing choice rather than an optimizing one. Ja Vereenvoudig het probleem Breidt het zoeken naar alternatieven uit Er is een bevredigend alternatief Nee Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Keuzes maken Beschikbaarheids- heuristiek Heuristiek van representativiteit Escalerende inzet Biases affect decision making. To cope with information overload, we rely on two heuristics, or judgmental shortcuts, when we make decisions: availability and representativeness. Another bias is the tendency to escalate commitment to a failing course of action. Availability Heuristic. Using the availability heuristic, people tend to base their judgments on information that is readily available. Representative Heuristic. People often assess the likelihood of an occurrence by drawing analogies and seeing identical situations where they do not exist. Escalation of Commitment. In spite of negative feedback, some managers escalate commitment to a failing enterprise, “throw good money after bad,” if they believe that they are responsible for the failure. They do so to avoid admitting they made a poor decision and to appear behaviorally consistent. In contrast, effective managers differentiate between situations where persistence will or will not pay off. Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Model van beslisstijlen Analytisch Conceptueel Gedragsmatig Directief Rationeel Intuïtief Manier van denken Hoog Laag Tolerantie voor ambiguïteit Model van beslisstijlen Personality and individual differences affect our decisions. Two of these variables are particularly relevant to organizational decisions: the individual’s decision-making style and level of moral development. The decision-styles model above identifies four approaches to decision making. The model illustrates that people differ along two dimensions: in their thinking styles (some are logical and rational, others intuitive and creative); in their tolerance for ambiguity. People using the directive style dislike ambiguity and prefer rationality. Those using the analytic style confront ambiguity by demanding more alternatives. Individuals using the conceptual style consider the “big picture” and seek multiple alternatives. Those using a behavioral style work well with others and are receptive to suggestions. Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Morele ontwikkelingsstadia Niveau Omschrijving stadium 6. Houdt zich aan zelfgekozen ethische principes, ook als daarmee de wet overschreden wordt. 5. Respecteert waarden van anderen; staat achter absolute waarden en rechten, ongeacht opinie meerderheid Principes 4. Houdt conventionele orde in stand door overeengekomen verplichtingen na te komen 3. Doet wat anderen in directe omgeving van hem verwachten Conventies Research has identified three levels of moral development, each comprising two stages, for a total of six stages. At each successive stage, an individual’s moral judgment relies less on outside opinions. At the preconventional level, individuals (Stage 1) stick to rules to avoid physical punishment and (Stage 2) follow rules only when doing so is in their immediate interest. At the conventional level, individuals (Stage 3) live up to what is expected by people close to them and (Stage 4) maintain conventional order by fulfilling obligations to which they have agreed. At the principled level, individuals (Stage 5) value the rights of others and uphold absolute values and rights, regardless of the majority’s opinion and (Stage 6) follow self-chosen ethical principles, even if they violate the law. Research on these stages of moral development supports several conclusions: People proceed through the stages in lock-step fashion. Continued development is not guaranteed. The majority of adults are at stage four. The higher the stage, the more likely that ethical decisions will be made. 2. Volgt regels alleen op als het in eigen belang is 1. Volgt regels op om lichaamsstraffen te vermijden Eigenbelang Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Historische precedenten Prestatie- beoordeling Belonings- systemen Restricties van de organisatie Previous decisions by the organization constrain current decisions. Performance Evaluation. Managers often consider evaluation criteria when making decisions. Reward Systems. How managers are rewarded will influence their decisions. System-Imposed Time Constraints. Deadlines pressure managers to make decisions. Historical Precedents. Decisions are made contextually and are points in a stream of decisions. Historische precedenten Tijdsbeper- kingen Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Het belang Tijdsoriëntatie van rationaliteit Verschillen tussen culturen Even though the rational model does not acknowledge cultural differences, the cultural background of a manager can significantly influence the selection of problems, depth of analysis, importance placed on logic and rationality, the importance of groups or individuals in decision making, time orientation, and belief in the ability of people to solve problems. Differences in time orientation help us understand why managers in Egypt will make decisions more slowly and deliberately than American mangers. While rationality is valued in North America, it is not valued everywhere in the world. Some cultures--the United States is one--emphasize solving problems; others, such as Thailand or Indonesia, focus on accepting situations as they are. Decision making by Japanese mangers is much more group-oriented than in the United states. Groepen of individuen Probleem identificatie Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6

Ethiek en Besluitvorming utilitarisme rechten rechtvaar- digheid An individual can use three criteria in making ethical choices. The first is the utilitarian criterion, in which decisions are made solely on the basis of their outcomes or consequences. The goal of utilitarianism is to provide the greatest good for the greatest number. It is consistent with goals like efficiency, high profits, and productivity. Therefore, laying off 15 percent of employees in order to cut costs and maximize profits could be justified because it will secure the greatest good for the largest number of people--the 85 percent who are left and the stockholders. Another criterion focuses on rights. This calls on individuals to make decisions consistent with fundamental rights and liberties as set forth in documents like the Bill of Rights. The use of this criterion, for example, would protect the free speech rights of employees who report the unethical or illegal actions of their employers. A third criterion focuses on justice. This requires that individuals impose and enforce rules fairly and impartially so there is an equitable distribution of benefits and costs. Union members typically favor this view because it justifies paying people the same wage for a given job, regardless of performance, and it uses seniority as the primary determinant in making layoff decisions. Pearson Education, 2002 Hoofdstuk 6