A GENCE OTAN D E G ESTION D U S YSTEME D E C OMMANDEMENT E T D E C ONTROLE A ERIENS NATO ACCS M ANAGEMENT A GENCY Classification of this briefing: NATO UNCLASSIFIED Cost Engineering in Aerospace & Defence Parametric Estimating DACE / NVBK Seminar 17 september 2009 Baarn Nederland René Berghuijs CCE NACMA PRD / PPB

2 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Introductie Onderwerpen –CE in Aerospace & Defence sector –Parametric estimating René Berghuijs –CE bij NATO ACCS Management Agency (NACMA) –European Liason van ISPA –Lid DACE

3 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Aerospace & Defence Industrie ASD in de EU: –Omzet 132 miljard € (2008) –650,000 banen –Groeimarkt –Hoge risico’s Enkele ASD prioriteiten: –Commercieel: Cleansky –ATC / ATM: Single European Sky –Militair: airlifters & airtankers –Space: innovation, technological non-dependence

4 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Cost Engineering in ASD Verschillen zijn o.a.: –Software intensieve programma’s –Life Cycle Costing / CAIV –COTS SW/HW –Procurement –Parametric estimating

5 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Software intensieve programma’s  Integrated NATO Air Command & Control  Interoperability among NATO Air Assets  Deployable Capability  Foundation for NATO Extended Air Defense Single Air-C2 System  Multitude of National Systems  Limited Functional and Operational Integration SIMCA POACCS SCCOA UKADGE ICC NEC CCIS (M)ASE AEGIS/ NADGE GIADS ARKONA GAFCCIS ASOC DUNAJ SEKTOR

6 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED ARS Torrejon + DCAOC FOB ARS Eskisehir ARS Diyarbakir CARS Poggio Renatico + DCAOC 2 CAOC Finderup ARS Karup ARS Glons ARS Erndtebrueck CARS Larissa ARS Cinq Mars La Pile ARS Gioia del Colle CAOC Uedem + DCAOC 1 CARS Lyon Mt Verdun LEGEND Red Validation Sites GreenMMR Rep Site Blue National ARS Site ARS Soerreisa ARS Scampton ARS Neatishead ARS Krakow ARS Stara Bolezlav ARS Meßstetten ARS Vezprem ARS Monsanto STVF ARS Maageroe ARS Bydgoszcz ARS Nieuw Milligen + DARS 1 Garrison Moron DARS 2 Garrison ARS Souda ARS Zaragoza ACCS Sites After Replication

7 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Briefing Overview COTS HW / SW

8 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Software intensieve programma’s SW cost estimating proces: 1.Bepaal SW size [SLOC] 2.Bepaal ontwikkelings uren 3.Bepaal Cost, Schedule, Risk SW sizing: Functie Punt Analyse, tools en metrics o.b.v. SW requirements Vuistregel: Equivalent SLOC = New + 0.7*Adapted + 0.1*Reused Cost HW SW Time

9 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Life Cycle Costing! Referentie RTO-TR-SAS-069

10 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Life Cycle Costing / CAIV

11 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Life Cycle Costing / CAIV

12 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Procurement International Competitive Bidding: price analysis –Input: technische evaluatie (technisch acceptabel ja/nee) –CE: bepaling laagste aanbieder; ‘price realism’ –Contract award: geen onderhandeling Sole source: cost analysis –Input: technische evaluatie (M&L) –CE: audited labour rates, learning curve,... –Output: 2 evaluatie posities: ‘going-in’ en ‘most likely’ –Onderhandelingen >> contract award ‘Best Value’: evaluatie van complexe projecten o.b.v. gewogen scores voor technische- en prijsevaluatie

13 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Parametric Cost Estimating (1) Cost Engineering Relationships (CER): –Eenvoudig verband tussen onafhankelijke variabele en kosten (of uren) –Onafhankelijke variabelen: b.v. gewicht, volume, oppervlak, vermogen, stuwkracht, SLOC of debiet –DACE prijzenboekje staat er vol mee –Voordelen: ·Eenvoudig, snel en betrouwbaar ·Minimum input nodig >> beginfasen –Nadeel: gevaar van oversimplificatie

14 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Parametric Cost Estimating (2) Parametrische modellen zijn complexer dan CER’s, omdat er veel vergelijkingen, basis regels, veronderstellingen, logica en variabelen in zitten die de specifieke situatie omschrijven Voordelen: –Top-down estimate –Modellen zijn commercieel verkrijgbaar –Betrouwbare estimates binnen korte tijd

15 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Parametric Cost Estimating

16 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Stelling Software komt tegenwoordig in iedere bedrijfstak voor. Daarom zou iedere Cost Engineer software moeten kunnen begroten, bij voorkeur door middel van parametrisch begroten.

17 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Back-up slides

18 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED ISPA Ca 400 leden in AS & D Elk jaar 3-daags congres incl. training Internationaal: congres 2008 Noordwijk, congres 2012 Brussel of Parijs (?) Cost Engineering Handbook Certificering $55/jaar of $550 for life BeNeLux Chapter in oprichting

19 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Candidate Benefits of Affiliation DACE –Increase your organization’s exposure to US and European ISPA members ·Invited to submit papers for consideration (subject to refereed review) in professional journal ·Provide at least one guest article a year to PW news letter –Invited to all ISPA functions ·In person technical interchanges and networking at ISPA’s European Conference (every leap year) –Co-sponsor and participate in anticipated Benelux chapter meeting ISPA –International venue to promote benefits of Parametrics (our mission) ·Invited to publish professional papers for refereed review and publishing ·Provide at least one guest article for newsletter –ISPA’s European members increase networking opportunities –Local co-sponsorship to help establish Benelux chapter

20 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Ground Surveillance

21 17 september 2009NATO UNCLASSIFIED Learning Curve