The usability of administrative data for register-based censuses Eric Schulte Nordholt

Outline (1) Data collection Data sources History of the Dutch census Publication of the Dutch Census 2011 Variables of the Census 2011 Characteristics of the Dutch census Conditions facilitating use of administrative sources

Outline (2) Two hundred years of censuses Censuses in the UNECE region Current and future work Educational Attaiment File Imputing the Educational Attainment File Discussion

Data collection Centralised in one data collection division (registers and surveys) Efficiency and professionality Using the same infrastructure for social and economic statistics as much as possible Collection strategy (preferred order): register data sample surveys Only existing sources have been used for the Census 2011 No Census 2011 questionnaires!

Data sources For the Census 2011: Registers Survey Population Register (automated population registration system) Jobs file (all employees) Self-employed file (all self-employed) Fiscal administration Social security administration Pensions and life insurance benefits Housing Register Survey Labour Force Survey

History of the Dutch census (1) Traditional censuses till 1971: Ministry of Home Affairs Statistics Netherlands 1829 1849 1869 1889 1909 1930 1960 1839 1859 1879 1899 1920 1947 1971 Unwillingness (non-response), privacy concerns, reduction expenses No more traditional censuses

History of the Dutch census (2) Virtual censuses from 1981 onwards: Register-based, survey information added, no census questionnaires 1981 1991 2001 2011 Population Register and surveys No official publication, no internal consistency, no regional results System of social statistical datasets (SSD) European Census Act of 2008 2011 Census published in European Census Hub

Publication of the Dutch Census 2011 Naast de oplevering aan Eurostat en de publicatie van de gegevens via de Census hub, wil het CBS ook zelf ruchtbaarheid geven aan de Volkstelling 2011. Op 19 november verscheen het boek: Dutch Census 2011, over de resultaten en gehanteerde methodologie van de Volkstelling 2011. Het eerste deel van het boek bestaat uit analyses van de resultaten. Deze omvatten de kerncijfers, een historische vergelijking met eerdere Nederlandse tellingen en een globale vergelijking van de resultaten van de Volkstelling 2011 in Nederland met resultaten in andere Europese landen. Een ander hoofdstuk gaat over buitenlanders in Nederland en Nederlanders in Europa. Ook worden de eilanden van Caribisch Nederland vergeleken met de in omvang vergelijkbare Waddeneilanden. Het tweede deel van het boek gaat over de gehanteerde methodologie. Het beschrijft de nieuwe weegmethode waarmee gegevens van de Enquête Beroepsbevolking worden hergebruikt in de Volkstelling 2011. Ook geeft dit deel uitleg over de aanvullende schattingstechnieken die nodig waren voor de zeer gedetailleerde informatie in de volkstellingstabellen. Census book: http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/dossiers/historische-reeksen/publicaties/publicaties/archief/2014/2014-dutch-census-2011-pub.htm?Languageswitch=on Census tables (of 32 European countries): https://ec.europa.eu/CensusHub2/

Variables of the Census 2011 (1) Persons: Place of usual residence Location place of work Locality size Sex Age Legal marital status Current activity status  Occupation Industry Status in employment Educational attainment Country/place of birth Country of citizenship Year of arrival in the country Place of usual residence one year before Housing arrangements

Variables of the Census 2011 (2) Household variables: Household status Family status Type of family nucleus Size of family nucleus Type op private household Size of private household Tenure status of households Housing variables: Type of living quarters Occupancy status of conventional dwellings Type of ownership Number of occupants Useful floor space and/or Number of rooms Density standard Water supply system Toilet facilities Bathing facilities Type of heating Dwellings by period of construction Dwellings by type of building

Characteristics of the Dutch census Relatively cheap Short production time More socially acceptable than the Census 1971 All tables are numerically consistent Some missing information in the survey part Dependent on registers (availablility, timeliness) Comparisons over time possible International comparisons possible Census data continuously available

Conditions facilitating use of administrative sources Legal base (Statistics Act) Public approval (‘Big Brother is watching you’) Cooperation among authorities (mainly government organisations) Comprehensive and reliable register system (administrative versus statistical quality) Unified identification system (preferably unique ID-numbers)

Two hundred years of censuses

Censuses in the UNECE region

Current and future work Preparing the Census 2021: New European implementing regulations (based on UNECE recommendations) Preparatory projects at Statistics Netherlands: Methodology (estimating occupation tables) Software Level of education attained (imputing the Educational Attainment File) Housing variables Population grid squares (legal base, protection of census data) Met het opleveren van de gegevens aan Eurostat en het verschijnen van de CBS-publicatie zijn de werkzaamheden voor de Volkstelling niet voorbij. In 2015 zal gewerkt worden beveiligde microdata bestanden, zodat (internationale) onderzoekers met onze volkstellingsgegevens kunnen werken. IPUMS project (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series) stelt beveiligde volkstellingsgegevens op microniveau van landen over de gehele wereld beschikbaar aan onderzoekers. En de voorbereidingen voor de Volkstelling 2021 zijn ook al van start. Allereerst worden de ervaringen met de VT2011 gebruikt voor internationale aanbevelingen voor de VT2021. Op basis van die aanbevelingen zullen nieuwe, aanvullende Europese verordeningen worden opgesteld. Daarnaast zullen ook binnen het CBS voorbereidende projecten worden uitgevoerd, bijvoorbeeld op het gebied van de schattingsmethoden en bijbehorende software en het gebruik van een combinatie van register- en enquêtegegevens over opleidingsniveau.

Educational Attainment File Complex integration process of microdata from LFS and examination registers New version containing also information on private education institutions available since 2016 About 60 % of the records have information on highest level of education attained Weighting to known marginals of the population for statistics on level of education Better quality and more detailed education tables than before when only LFS information was used

Imputing the Educational Attainment File In this project: Find a good imputation model for the Educational Attainment File (logistic regression model) Produce a set of hypercubes of the Census 2011 again, now by using the imputed Educational Attainment File Develop a set of quality indicators (basis for decision how detailed the future census publication will be) Plan for highest level of education attained in the Dutch Census 2021 (also of interest for other countries)

Thank you very much for your attention! Holland in the winter

Discussion Are there questions or remarks?