Goed doen op zijn best: een inleiding tot effectief altruïsme

Presentatie over: "Goed doen op zijn best: een inleiding tot effectief altruïsme"— Transcript van de presentatie:

1 Goed doen op zijn best: een inleiding tot effectief altruïsme

2 Een held zijn…

3 Een experiment Hoeveel geld wil je geven om Rokia te helpen?
Västfjäll D, Slovic P, Mayorga M, Peters E (2014) Compassion Fade: Affect and Charity Are Greatest for a Single Child in Need. PLoS ONE 9(6): e doi: /journal.pone Slovic, P. (2007), If I Look at Mass I Will Never Act: Psychic Numbing and Genocide. In Judgment and Decision Making, Volume 2, no. 2, pp

4 Een experiment Hoeveel geld wil je geven om Rokia en Moussa te helpen?

5 Een experiment Affectie Donatie

6 Scope neglect Brief A: 2000 vogels redden Brief B: 20000 vogels redden
$80 $78 Desvousges, W. Johnson, R. Dunford, R. Boyle, K. J. Hudson, S. and Wilson K. N. (1992). Measuring non-use damages using contingent valuation: experimental evaluation accuracy. Research Triangle Institute Monograph 92-1.

7 1 2 Voedseltekort treft 11 miljoen Ethiopiërs 1 euro gift 2 euro gift

8 1 kind ver weg

9 Inkomensdistributie

10 Inkomensdistributie

11 2% reductie van kankersterftes door 10% reductie in longkankersterftes
0,3% reductie in globale sterftes 50% reductie in huidkankersterftes 0,1% reductie in globale sterftes Non-communicable diseases: 71% of global deaths Ischemic Heart Disease: 16% of global deaths Cancers: 16% of global deaths Lung cancer: 3,1% of global deaths Skin cancer: 0,2% of global deaths Melanoma: 0,1% of global deaths Futiliteitsdenken Kahneman, D. &Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, Fetherstonhaugh, D., Slovic, P., Johnson, S. and Friedrich, J. (1997). Insensitivity to the value of human life: A study of psychophysical numbing. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14: Unger, P. (1996). Living High and Letting Die, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 100% reductie in melanomasterftes 0,1% reductie in globale sterftes

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16 PlayPump

17 GiveDirectly

18 “75% or more of social interventions have small or no effects.”
David Anderson Turns out our intuitions across the board are pretty bad at this. Why? Because the problems we’re grappling with are hard, a lot harder than we can wrap our heads around. Well-intentioned people can give it their all and still get it wrong.

19 Pokkenvaccin

20 Wereld met pokkenvaccin?
Wereld zonder geweld? 10% van doden 1% van doden Uitroeien van pokken = 10x wereldvrede!

21 Doden per jaar Interpersoonlijk geweld
Immunisatie vermijdbare ziektes (1960) (heden) Diarree (1980) Malaria (1930) Pokken (1950) The world is getting better. Doden per jaar Interpersoonlijk geweld

22 Effectiviteit

23 Effectiviteit Interventies kosteneffectiviteit
But it is just a very few of the initiatives that do that crazy amount of good. Some interventions and the charities that execute them do orders of magnitude more than others. kosteneffectiviteit

24 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretrovirale therapie €20,000 / QALY grens

25 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap

26 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap

27 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Distributie van condooms Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap

28 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Distributie van condooms Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap

29 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Distributie van condooms Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap Distributie van bednetten

30 Effectiviteit Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Distributie van condooms Behandeling van Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretrovirale therapie Preventie van transmissie tijdens zwangerschap Distributie van bednetten

31 Wat jij kunt bereiken Gift van 3000€ aan AMF = 700 bednetten
= 1400 kinderen beschermd tegen malaria voor 2 jaar = 1 leven gered

32 Wat jij kunt bereiken Je bent een held als je een leven redt 10% van je inkomen wegschenken = €300,000 = 100 levens redden Giving What We Can pledge >2000 ondertekend

33 Hoge Impact Ethische Carrières

34 Omvangrijkheid 𝖷 Verwaarloodsdheid 𝖷 Hanteerbaarheid
Effectiviteit = Omvangrijkheid 𝖷 Verwaarloodsdheid 𝖷 Hanteerbaarheid Hoeveel mensen werken al aan het probleem? Hoe eenvoudig is het om vooruitgang te boeken? Hoe groot is het probleem?

35 Omvangrijkheid Verwaarloosdheid Hanteerbaarheid
Focusing on the most important, neglected, and tractable things can. Let’s delve into this a bit. 80K: Tractable: There are definite interventions to make progress within this cause, with strong evidence behind them For instance, there are definite opportunities for progress, backed by widely accepted theory, randomised control trials or a track record of success.

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37 Immediate impact: Bed net distribution
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE AUDIENCE KNOWS ABOUT THIS

38 Distributing medicine to prevent and cure WORMS / PARASITES is very tractable, since WE already have the medicine available, know a good means of distributing it, and have the infrastructure to do so.

39 Omvangrijkheid Verwaarloosdheid Hanteerbaarheid
Otherwise called the “uncrowdedness” of a cause area. 80K: Uncrowded: If we add more resources to the cause, we can expect more promising interventions to be carried out. Uncrowded causes are often undervalued or neglected by society. There may be a shortage of important actors within the cause.

40 $330,000 per victim in Japan But not just identifiable victims. Anything that has a salient story is likely to be far more funded than endemic problems. For instance, for every death the Japanese earthquake caused, aid organizations receive $330,000 in donations.

41 $15,000 per person in poverty In contrast, for every person who dies from poverty-related causes worldwide, only $15,000 on average is spent in foreign aid and philanthropy. Partly for this reason, experts from the World Health Organization and World Bank concluded that “emergency health interventions are more costly and less effective than time-tested health activities.”

42 Omvangrijkheid Verwaarloosdheid Hanteerbaarheid
Otherwise called the “scale” of the problem. It’s a combination of the number it affects and how strongly if affects them. 80K: Important: If we make more progress on this cause, the world will be made a better place. By ‘world made a better place’ we mean that lots of people will be made better off in important ways. Causes can also be important indirectly, because progress on them lets us make progress on other important causes or provides valuable information about which causes are best.

43 Taking safety precautionary measures with developing technologies that may have the ability to affect the global labor market, financial systems, or even livelihood on a global scale. Ignored because the incentives aren’t there for companies developing these technologies to slow down and figure out all of the ways in which things could go sour.

44 Long-run impact: Prevention of global catastrophes that could destabilize the economy and/or geopolitics, such as extreme climate change

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48 Existentieel risico Kans: 0,000000001 (K1)
Aantal toekomstige levens op het spel: (N) Verwacht aantal levens verloren (K1xN): (V1) 1% reductie van risico; nieuwe kans (K2): 0, Nieuw verwacht aantal levens verloren (K2xN): (V2) Verwacht aantal levens ‘gered’ (V1-V2):

49 If you think that animals have the capacity to suffer, improving their lives in factory farms or trying to replace meat with other foods can be quite valuable, and receives very little attention compared to the number of lives affected.

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51 Morele radar Mensen

52 Morele radar Toekomstige generaties Mensen

53 Morele radar Toekomstige generaties Mensen Dieren

54 Effective Animal Activism Meta-charity

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58 Indirect impact: Improving research in fields like psychology, that tell us more about how to e.g. influence policies in important ways or make more accurate predictions about the economy

59 Open Philanthropy Project Top Causes
Global Poverty 700 million people in extreme poverty Factory Farming 50 billion animals raised and killed in terrible conditions every year Immigration Reform Some economists would estimate could increase world GDP by 50% Criminal Justice Reform US incarcerates 10x as many people as in other countries. Particularly ripe political opportunity Global Catastrophic Risks Potential death of everyone on planet and loss of all future potential of the human race.

60 Effectief Altruïsme is een groeiende sociale beweging
die rede en bewijs gebruikt om de wereld zo goed mogelijk te verbeteren. EA is a simple but powerful idea: the notion that we can take these findings seriously, that we can use reason and evidence to do as much good as we can for the lives of others. It’s seeing Rokia and knowing that she and those like her are incredibly valuable, and that because they are all so valuable we should figure out how to help as many as much as possible. [NOT SURE ABOUT THIS PART] It’s because we are about the identifiable victims, because we know that they have identities worth saving, that we need to do the things that are going to benefit the most of them in the best way possible.

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62 Wat kun jij doen? Teken de Giving What We Can 10% Pledge: Zoek carrièreadvies op Engageer je bij een lokale groep. Voor elke persoon die de pledge tekent €300,000 = 100 levens gered; Een ander overtuigen om evenveel goeds te doen als jij verdubbelt je impact.

63 Vragen? eavlaanderen.org eaflanders@effectivealtruismhub.com
givewell.org animalcharityevaluators.org

64 Giving Game GiveDirectly Against Malaria Foundation
The Good Food Institute