De onverwachte opmars van de euro Hettie Pott-Buter AUV 8 november 2008

Opbouw Op weg naar de € Uitvoering Doel Meten Aanpassen beleid Verschil met VS AUV 8 november 2008

De voorgeschiedenis 1951 EGKS Europese Gemeenschap voor Kolen en Staal 1957 Verdrag van Rome: oprichting EEG en Euratom 1967 Europese Commissie 1968 EG 1973 Eerste uitbreiding EG AUV 8 november 2008

Uitbreiding Europese Unie AUV 8 november 2008

In stappen naar de € Stap 1 naar de Europese Monetaire Unie (EMU) Basis: Delors rapport 1989 Van Verdrag van Rome naar Verdrag Europese Unie (EU) AUV 8 november 2008

Verdrag van Maastricht Ondertekend 7 february 1992 In werking 1 november 1993 Velen betwijfelden of dit verdrag over een een een economische and monetary unie ooit meer zou zijn dan een lofwaardig doel ergens ver in de toekomst. Echter de jaren na de ondertekening bleken veel politici en economen vastbesloten om de gezamenlijke munteenheid tot stand te brengen. AUV 8 november 2008

Stap 2 1994 Europees Monetair Instituut EMI 1995 Naam euro 1997 Verdrag van Amsterdam Stabiliteits- en Groeipact Noch the ECB nor the euro bestond in 1997. Wel naam in 1995. Today we have a currency and a central bank that issues that currency with remarkable credibility. In June 1988 the European Council confirmed the objective of the progressive realisation of economic union and mandated a Committee chaired by Jacques Delors, the then President of the European Commission, to study and propose concrete stages leading to this union. The resulting “Delors Report” proposed that economic and monetary union should be achieved in three discrete but evolutionary steps. Stage One of EMU On the basis of the Delors Report, the European Council decided in June 1989 that the first stage of the realisation of economic and monetary union should begin on 1 July 1990 – the date on which, in principle, all restrictions on the movement of capital between Member States were abolished. The first step was to identify all the issues which should be examined at an early stage, to establish a work programme by the end of 1993 . For the realisation of Stages Two and Three, it was necessary to revise the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community (the “Treaty of Rome”). The negotiations resulted in the Treaty on European Union which was agreed in December 1991 and signed in Maastricht on 7 February 1992. However, owing to delays in the ratification process, the Treaty (which amended the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community – changing its name to the Treaty establishing the European Community – and introduced, inter alia, the Protocol on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank and the Protocol on the Statute of the European Monetary Institute) did not come into force until 1 November 1993. AUV 8 november 2008

Stabiliteits- en Groeipact EMU-schuld maximaal 60% BBP Begrotingstekort maximaal 3% BBP AUV 8 november 2008

Stap 3 ECB en euro 1999 Europese Centrale Bank Frankfurt, Duitsland invoering Euro Eén doelstelling: Stabiel prijsniveau before turning to chapter 3, i would like to say something about the birth of the euro neither the ECB nor the euro existed six years ago. Today we have a currency and a central bank that issues that currency with remarkable credibility. In June 1988 the European Council confirmed the objective of the progressive realisation of economic union and mandated a Committee chaired by Jacques Delors, the then President of the European Commission, to study and propose concrete stages leading to this union. The resulting “Delors Report” proposed that economic and monetary union should be achieved in three discrete but evolutionary steps. Stage One of EMU On the basis of the Delors Report, the European Council decided in June 1989 that the first stage of the realisation of economic and monetary union should begin on 1 July 1990 – the date on which, in principle, all restrictions on the movement of capital between Member States were abolished. The first step was to identify all the issues which should be examined at an early stage, to establish a work programme by the end of 1993 . For the realisation of Stages Two and Three, it was necessary to revise the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community (the “Treaty of Rome”). The negotiations resulted in the Treaty on European Union which was agreed in December 1991 and signed in Maastricht on 7 February 1992. However, owing to delays in the ratification process, the Treaty (which amended the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community – changing its name to the Treaty establishing the European Community – and introduced, inter alia, the Protocol on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank and the Protocol on the Statute of the European Monetary Institute) did not come into force until 1 November 1993. AUV 8 november 2008

2002 ook bankbiljetten AUV 8 november 2008

en munten AUV 8 november 2008

Drie stappen naar € AUV 8 november 2008

Geen NL monetair beleid Rijksbegroting Miljoenennota AUV 8 november 2008

Onafhankelijk van politiek AUV 8 november 2008

Verantwoording AUV 8 november 2008

De ECB organisatie AUV 8 november 2008

Bestuur ECB Directie en Raad van Bestuur AUV 8 november 2008

Governing council Raad van Bestuur Vergadert elke 14 dagen The Governing Council meets once a fortnight. Front row (left to right): Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Lucas D. Papademos, Jean-Claude Trichet, Yves Mersch, Otmar Issing, John Hurley Middle row (left to right): Axel A. Weber, Nicholas C. Garganas, Christian Noyer, Vítor Manuel Ribeiro Constâncio, José Manuel González-Páramo, Guy Quaden Back row (left to right): Klaus Liebscher, Nout Wellink, Erkki Liikanen, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, Antonio Fazio, Jaime Caruana GC = main decision making body. Decides on interest rates, required reserves, and the provision of liquidity to the system. Each member, one vote. Majority of votes. President decides when equal votes. AUV 8 november 2008

Presidenten van de centrale banken van de 15 eurolanden AUV 8 november 2008

Belangrijkste taken AUV 8 november 2008

Geen verantwoordelijkheid voor de euro The General Council There exists a third body: the general council, with governors of all cb’s, but we concentrate on the ECB Voting principles are simple one man, one vote; majority of votes; President decides when votes are ex aequo. An important principle is the independence of the central Bank from political influence. the treaty also contains provisions ensuring that the pusuit of the objective of price stability is fully respected by the single exchange rate policy. Although a shared responsibility with the Ecofin Council, provisions ensure that foreign echange policy is consistent with the policy of price stability. Although ECB-board has only 6 votes out of 18, it has a strategic position within the Governing Council, so that its proposals are likely to prevail. This decision making process ensures that the interest rate that will be decided is the one that comes closest to the average desired interest rate in the Eurosystem. Algemene Raad Geen verantwoordelijkheid voor de euro AUV 8 november 2008

General Council en ESCB AUV 8 november 2008

Besluitvormingsorganen AUV 8 november 2008

Vroegere doelstellingen van monetair beleid (nog in VS) 1. Lage werkloosheid, hoge werkgelegenheid 2. Hoge economische groei 3. Prijsstabiliteit 4. Rentestabiliteit 5. Financiële markt stabiliteit 6. Stabiliteit wisselkoersen Kan niet samen, deels conflicterende doelstellingen Alle doelstellkingen tegelijkertijd nastreven, kan niet. Wel kan centrale doelstelling worden gekozen, bijvoorbeeld volledige werkgelegenheid, dwz. werkloosheid beneden bepaald percentage, met als randvoorwaarde handhaven 2 t/m 6. De ECB heeft dat gedaan. Een doelstelling, nl nr. 3 inflatie gemeten via HICP tussen 0 en 2% op middellange termijn met inachtneming van geen verslechtering van andere wensen op sociaal-economisch gebied. Nu redelijk bereikt, misschien bijstellen of focus op andere doelstelling in nabije toekomst. AUV 8 november 2008

ECB: doel prijsstabiliteit Verhoogt welvaart Maakt vergelijking prijzen mogelijk Verlaagt rente (lagere risico opslag) Minder belasting- en sociale zekerheid verstoringen Aanhouden van kasgeld gunstiger Voorkomt willekeurige herverdeling vermogen en inkomen AUV 8 november 2008

Definitie van prijsstabiliteit Prijsstijging in hele eurogebied dicht bij de 2% “over the medium term” Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Die geharmoniseerde prijsindex wordt vanaf 1995 gemeten AUV 8 november 2008

HICP inflatie in % AUV 8 november 2008

Prijsstijging na invoering AUV 8 november 2008

Inflatie trends in eurolanden voor invoering euro! AUV 8 november 2008

Prijzen en inflatie inflation NL 5,1% 2004 1,4% AUV 8 november 2008

Hoe doel te bereiken? Rentebesluit Governing Council ECB Laatste 6 november 2008 Die rente vormt basis voor tarieven op de geldmarkt Via ‘Open Market Operations’ AUV 8 november 2008

Rentebesluiten ECB datum 3,75 4,25 4 3,5 Deposit Facility Main refinancing rate of minimum bied rente Marginal lending rate 12-11-08 2,75 3,75 4,75 09-07-08 3,25 4,25 5,25 13-06-07 3 4 5 14-03-07 13-12-06 2,5 3,5 4,5 11-11-06 2,25 09-08-06 2 AUV 8 november 2008

Geldmarkttarieven in % AUV 8 november 2008

Rentetarieven EONIA: European Overnight Index Average Euribor: Euro Interbank Offered Rate AUV 8 november 2008

Rentetarieven ECB basisrente AUV 8 november 2008

Open Market Operations AUV 8 november 2008

Filmpje ECB AUV 8 november 2008

Koop aandelen AUV 8 november 2008

Schatkist of FED vangnet AUV 8 november 2008

Risico en opbrengst voor verschillende investeerders AUV 8 november 2008

crisis september 2008 Bron: Bloomberg AUV 8 november 2008

Krediet crisis a balance sheet has two sides a left side and a right side on the left side there´s nothing right and on the right side there´s nothing left… Bron: DNB AUV 8 november 2008

Geldgroei in eurogebied AUV 8 november 2008

Belang banksector in BBP AUV 8 november 2008

Risico en opbrengst voor verschillende investeerders AUV 8 november 2008

Gegevens t.o.v VS en China Het verdrag van Rome en het verdrag van Maastrcht zijn de belangrijkste en meest visionaire wettelijke documenten in de geschiedenis van het Europese integratie proces. Met the euro the treaty offered tangible proof of its vision, namely bringing the people of Europe closer together and ultimately AUV 8 november 2008

Voordelen integratie AUV 8 november 2008

Formele Structuur van de Fed AUV 8 november 2008

Onafhankelijkheid van Fed De Fed is onafhankelijk van politieke invloeden Benoemingen lang. Herbenoemingen weinig (behalve chairman). Seignorage en obligatie inkomsten zorgen voor financiële zelfstandigheid. De Fed is wel afhankelijk van de politiek wat betreft: 1. Wetgeving, Congress kan amenderen 2. Benoeming Chairman and Board members door de President van de US en President en Congress kunnen ook besluiten beïnvloeden. AUV 8 november 2008