1 Milieuschadekosten van luchtverontreining Toegevoegde waarde en beperkingen van de economische analyse Leo De Nocker 14 maart 2001

2 Agenda Achergrond en definities Methodologie gezondheidseffecten fijn stof economische waardering broeikaseffect onzekerheden Voorbeelden van toepassingen vergelijking van technologieën : elektriciteit, transport accijnzen voor wegverkeer baten van milieumaatregelen : scenario analyse kosten-baten analyse maatregelen Conclusies

3 Achtergrond Externe kosten : alle kosten die niet worden gedragen door wie ze veroorzaakt Bijv. voor verkeer en transport: Ongevallen Files Luchtvervuiling In opdracht van, met dank aan : De Europese Commissie, DG XII De Belgische federale overheid (DWTC) De Vlaamse overheid (Vliet bis) ExernE netwerk

4 ExternE project ExternE = Externe kosten van Energie Onderzoeksproject EC, Joule, ExternE netwerk : + 50 wetenschappelijke Instituten van verschillende disciplines in alle EU landen + VS.

5 ExternE Methodologie Wordt door VITO toegepast en verder ontwikkeld. Resultaten voor : –Elektriciteit België –Transport : België –Energiegebruik Vlaanderen (Draft, 2001) Wordt gebruikt door –Europese overheden m.b.t. beleid luchtkwaliteit –UN-ECE Göteborg protocol –Vlaamse overheid (Mira S, SMER ) –Electriciteitssector (Electrabel, Europa) –nationale & regionale studies –Wereldbank, EBRD,

6 Toepassingen Milieuschadekosten zijn een monetaire indicator van milieu- impacts die kunnen gebruikt worden : om verschillende milieu-impacts samen te vatten en te wegen in één enkele indicator. Om verschillende technologieën, lokaties, brandstoffen ed. te vergelijken. Emissies naar lucht Directe impacts zoals geluid in kosten-baten analyses van beleidsopties kosten-baten van emissiereducties taxering van brandstoffen, nieuwe technologiën internalisatie van externe kosten

7 Agenda Achergrond en definities Methodologie impact pathway analyse gezondheidseffecten fijn stof economische waardering broeikaseffect onzekerheden Voorbeelden van toepassingen vergelijking van technologieën : elektriciteit, transport accijnzen voor wegverkeer baten van milieumaatregelen : scenario analyse kosten-baten analyse maatregelen Conclusies

8 De schadefunctie methode 2. Emissions and burdens 1. Technology description 3. Impact on environment 4. Changes in welfare ExternE detailed bottom up modelling work LCIA Top down simplified analysis

9 De schadefunctie methode

10 Economic valuation Valuation based on societal preferences, measured by means of willingness to pay of the individuals (man in the street ) for environmental goods or services differs from valuation schemes based on e.g. expert judgements or policy decisions Willingness to pay is measured by : Revealed preferences : –market prices –prices from related markets : e.g. differences in house prices for a less noisy neighbourhood Stated preferences : –Contingent Valuation = questionnaire approaches

11 non welfare-based methods

12 Different type of values

13 Which tool for which value type

14 Discounting Difficult issue in welfare economics No reason to use different discount rates for environment then for similar policy questions No agreement on one best social discount rate to use so we use a set of discount rates Discount rate has different components discount rate = time preference + opportunity cost of capital within one generation : 1% and 3 % future generations : no time preference : 0 % to 1.5 %

15 Bestudeerde polluenten & impacts

16 Afbakening van impacts naar ruimtenaar tijd

17 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SO2NOx-directDeeltjesNOx-ozon ecosystemen landbouw materialen Morbiditeit Mortaliteit Externe kosten per ton polluent

18 Overview of impacts covered 1 Air pollutants : detailed assessment and valuation for Public Health : dominant impact category, shows the importance of impacts from particles, aerosols and other pollutants on public health, for some quantification remains uncertain

19 Impacts on public health Air pollution kills ? –acute and mid term impacts form very small particles on mortality –relevant for PM, ammonium sulphates and nitrates –based on epidemiological studies Relative big impacts –linear dose-effect function –no threshold at population level –small increments x large population affected = large impact for PM Big uncertainties for mortality impacts from PM: –biological mechanism ? –is PM 2.5 and particle mass the right indicator for a mix of pollut. ? –Quantification (esp. chronic mortality ) –monetary valuation

20 Valuation of public health impacts Morbidity –cost of illness (market prices ) + labour loss + suffering (questionnaire studies) –data available for all endpoints –smaller impacts are very important –consistent with DALY approach Mortality –we do not value life, but a change in risk of dying earlier –a lot of studies on ‘value of a statistical life’ : mid estimate for EU is 3.4 million EURO = 140 X GDP/capita –for air pollution impacts : the right approach is to value the years of life lost. Value of a year of life lost in ExternE : Euro –issues not accounted for : age dependent (?), context, quality of life years lost –more specific studies are needed, aimed at air pollution issues

21 Overview of impacts covered 1 Air pollutants : detailed assessment and valuation for Public Health : dominant impact category, shows the importance of impacts from particles, aerosols and other pollutants on public health, for some quantification remains uncertain Agriculture : not controversial but not complete (valuable crops) Materials : not complete, (soiling, stock at risk, historic buildings)  Ozone impacts : hard to model, big difference between marginal and aggregated analysis (for NOx for Belgium )  Ecological impacts : impacts on critical loads can be quantified, but impacts hard be monetise and data transfer

22 Overview of impacts covered 2  Global Warming : positive and negative impacts : range of data is available, large uncertainties, importance of assumptions blanks : not all impacts-categories are included, data limited to impacts to 2100 or 2200 Water and soil, some air pollutants Exposure assessment, Toxicity rankings and expert panel valuation  As our understanding chances, data need to be updated  Comparisons between pollutants, impacts may be difficult  Combine valuation with sustainability indicators

23 Lokale versus regionale impacts

24 Uncertainty analysis Types of uncertainty Parametric uncertainty of models, dose-response functions, : add lower and upper boundaries uncertainty in emissions, traffic data monte carlo analysis transferability and applicability of data, d-r functions, … sensitivity analysis importance of blanks in the analysis add sustainability indicators Uncertainty in policy studies stratified uncertainty analysis

25 Agenda Achergrond en definities Methodologie gezondheidseffecten fijn stof economische waardering broeikaseffect onzekerheden Voorbeelden van toepassingen vergelijking van technologieën : elektriciteit, transport accijnzen voor wegverkeer baten van milieumaatregelen : scenario analyse kosten-baten analyse maatregelen Conclusies

26 Vergelijking brandstofcycli meth 98

27 Vergelijking met kWh prijs meth 98

28 Onzekerheidsanalyse: totale onzekerheid

29 Onzekerheidsanalyse: stratified uncertainty analysis

30 Onzekerheid: actualisatie resultaten : Vergelijking brandstofcycli en technologie meth 2000

31 Onzekerheid: actualisatie resultaten : Vergelijking externe kost met marktprijs meth 2000

32 Results : vehicle and fuel related factors

33 Impacts hangen af van het traject Externe kosten per voertuig kilometer Van Brussels naar Luik kilometer Eurocent/voertuig.km Stad 28 km/hSnelweg 110 km/hStad 28 km/h Brussel, centrum Ring Bertem Leuven Luik, centrum TienenBerloz Awans Roccourt Borgerhout

34 Invloed bronparameters hoge schouwen België (ExternE 98)

35 Milieuschadekosten en accijns op diesel

36 Milieuschadekosten van wegtransport personen Euro (miljard) Totaal BAU Euro0 Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Onzekerheid

37 Milieuschadekosten van wegtransport vrachtwagens

Kanaal Gent-Terneuzen Spoorweg Gent-Lokeren Willekeurig traject E17 snelweg Antwerpen-Gent Traject Eurocent/ton.km geluid (Infras IWW 2000) Electr.(fossiele mix) Klimaat CO Carcinogenen Sulfaten SO2 Nitraten PM2.5 ozon Binnenschepen Kempenaar & Duwvaart Diesel trein (gemiddelde) Diesel truck >32t Euro 2 Elektrische trein Goederentransport vgl. van de verschillende modi, gebruiksfase

Albert kanaal Herentals Albert kanaal Herentals Herentals-MolWillekeurig traject Landelijke weg Eurocent/ton.km Infrastructuur Voertuig cyclus Brandstof cyclus Gebruiksfase Binnenschepen Kempenaar Duwvaart 550 ton ton Goederentreinen Diesel Elektrisch 373 ton 430 ton Truck Euro2 16 ton Goederentransport vgl. van de verschillende modi

40 Conclusions on air pollution Air pollution Externalities of transport can be significant the total annual environmental air pollution damage cost of Belgian passenger traffic is estimated to be about 1.25 % of GDP. primary and secondary particles are the dominant source of impacts, 2010 : air quality problem solved ? PM : no threshold :what is the acceptable level ? Is particle mass the right indicator ? Impacts not quantified will remain important –acidification and eutrofication : above critical loads for Belgium –ozone : peak levels controlled but not the background level –global warming Uncertainty analysis other methods, sustainability indicators needed

41 Baten voor MIRA S

42 ruimtelijke spreiding impacts

43 Milieuschadekosten luchtverontreining 1998 Vlaanderen, mia BF

44 Baten van maatregelen van MIRA S

45 Baten van maatregelen van MIRA S

46 Milieuschadekosten luchtverontreining 1998 Vlaanderen, mia BF

47 Conclusions on air pollution Air pollution Externalities of transport can be significant the total annual environmental air pollution damage cost of Belgian passenger traffic is estimated to be about 1.25 % of GDP. primary and secondary particles are the dominant source of impacts, 2010 : air quality problem solved ? PM : no threshold :what is the acceptable level ? Is particle mass the right indicator ? Impacts not quantified will remain important –acidification and eutrofication : above critical loads for Belgium –ozone : peak levels controlled but not the background level –global warming Uncertainty analysis other methods, sustainability indicators needed

48 Onzekerheidsanalyse: stratified uncertainty analysis

49 Cost benefit analysis SO2 abatement

50 Cost benefit of air pollution in Europe A combination of sustainability indicators (critical loads ) and environmental benefits for public health was used to assess costs and benefits for the new protocol on long range air pollution in Europe. Context : multi-pollutant - multi effect analysis The costs to reduce around 50 % of the exceedance of critical loads for acidification, eutrophication and ozone were compared with the public health benefits in monetary terms of these measures (mostly PM related benefits) For most countries : benefits > costs Cost benefit analysis based on stratified uncertainty analysis Future : include PM analysis in multi-pollutant protocols Need other ways to take account of sustainability indicators

51 Conclusions on cost benefit analysis Benefit estimation : to use or not to use ? For a number of air pollutants, data are available based on ‘state of the art’ of our understanding of issues and they offer added value for decision making  there are important blanks (esp. ecological impacts) and uncertainties  Data should not be used as a ‘black box’ figure  uncertainty & sensitivity analysis in function of context of use ;  data can be completed, but not mixed-up, with other indicators

52 conclusies : milieu-economie Vraag naar identificatie en kwantificatie van de baten van milieubeleid is terecht, en brengt vooral duidelijkheid in het debat, ook over de grenzen van ons weten Veel vragen draaien rond wat we willen betalen voor de beheersing van risico’s van milieuverontreinging en (milieu-)economie kan hier nog verder een bijdrage brengen