Planning & Control van Research & Development projecten Mission Impossible? Ir Hans Minnee

Wat gaan we doen vandaag (en voortaan ?) Stellingen Wat is project planning & control 3 Cases R&D projecten Wat leren we ervan Wat doe je ermee in je eigen project

Stellingen The beauty of NOT planning is…… that failure comes as a total surprise, instead of being preceeded by weeks of worrying and agony!

Stellingen R & D is een ontdekkingsreis: Je weet niet waar je uitkomt Je weet niet hoe lang het duurt Het heeft dus geen zin om dat te plannen!

Stellingen Failure to Plan = Plan to Fail! Beter een vaag plan dan helemaal geen plan

Wat is Planning van een project Een meetbaar resultaat van het project doel (Scope) omschrijven en vertalen & opdelen naar concrete activiteiten (Work Breakdown Structure) en + leveringen (Deliverables) die naar het doel leiden. Logische activiteiten volgorde in WBS aangeven en in de tijd zetten (van laatste naar eerste) en in een ”netwerk” (parallele en serieele verbanden) Aan activiteiten kosten en uren toewijzen (budget) Een team formeren met juiste capaciteiten (kwalitatief + kwantitatief) en koppelen aan activiteiten (Organisation Breakdown Structure) Afspraken maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden Identificeer risico´s en heb daarvoor alternatieven

Wat is Control van een project Regelmatig activiteiten meten qua voortgang zowel op tijd en op budget (naast performance) Vraag je als team af: gaan we zo de eindstreep halen qua performance, tijd en geld en wat zijn de bottlenecks (Kritieke Pad) in netwerk en de risico’s Analyseer oorzaak van vertraging en budgetoverschrijding ….en leer er van! Stuur bij door andere oplossingen en nieuwe / betere afspraken te maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden.

Summary Planning & Control volg de Demming circle: Plan => Do => Check => Act C D

Case 1 Thermoplastic Airbus A340 J-Nose wing leading edge

What is a ‘J-nose’? ’J-nose’ wing torsion box slat access panel photo Airbus ’J-nose’ wing torsion box slat access panel

Fokker Thermoplastics R&D, Technology status, 1998 Press-forming: in production status Resistance Welding: proven on a demonstrator part, ready for industrialization Consolidation technology: R&D phase Next step forward: full assembly on a series application customer: British Aerospace, A340-500/600

Results of the first meeting with Airbus (AUK / BAe) potential for a business case: Airbus / British Aerospace design Fokker production technology Ten Cate material good chemistry between people involved new team leader at Airbus, willing to pick up a challenge agreement on a phased study with: a 1:1 prototype calculations to support a business case

Business case J-nose thermosets -$ thermoplastics -w $ aluminum weight

QUESTION What should AUK bear in mind when considering a thermoplastic J-Nose rather than the prior (proven) metal version?

Weight savings (20%) offset against: ANSWER: Weight savings (20%) offset against: costs per component basis and for installation, on a per-aircraft basis investments in design modifications, material specs, co-operation with Fokker risks: what if it doesn’t work or Fokker is late?

PHASING Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping Submit and negotiate proposal Full scale development

Development of the Business Case: Feasibility Study AUK wants to reduce risks: agrees with Fokker that a demonstrator should be developed and built Is prepared to pay for a demonstrator (Phase 2 of feasibility study)

The prototype: 1.5 metres in length simplified prismatic cross-section Skin sheet, ‘consolidated’ in an oven mould 1.5 metres in length simplified prismatic cross-section with prototype tools Ribs, welded onto skin sheet mould Pressed ribs and stiffeners mould

Problem definition: Delivery time It is mid January. Phase 2 will not be complete till the end of May. Main reason: duration of tooling AUK ‘NEED DATE’ PROTO JAN FEB MAR APR MAY PHASE 1 PHASE 2: demonstrator GO/NO-GO tools production For AUK, however, the go/no-go decision point is at the end of April, 1 month earlier. The proto absolutely has to be in Filton by then QUESTION: How to solve this?

Answer: Analyse Critical Path => tooling and process development Start on proto tools at own expense, a month before finalisation of phase 1 Set up an exact planning and check/act continuously Make all resources available, including a full free hand for the best specialist within the company Have a dedicated Team in 1 place

A340-600 ‘J-nose’ prototype (1998) AUK: ‘sounds like metal, must be good’ operators: repair friendly

PHASING Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping Submit and negotiate proposal Full scale development

Fokker Proposal to AUK : basic input Technical description: Design & fabrication concept Calculation of costs: Recurring costs (RC): per product, with learning effect and inflation Non-recurring costs (NRC): design, tools (moulds), work preparation Completion time Planning: Best guess, based on previous projects

QUESTION: What should Fokker Management take into account in the quotation to AUK?

ANSWER: part of a PLAN! what is the ‘cost vs. price’? (price = cost + profit) what total price is the customer (AUK) prepared to pay? do we have the money to amortize the non-recurring costs & capital investments? can government provide assistance (development and financing credit)? over how many aircraft to we do that (business case analysis)? what risks does Fokker incur and what bottlenecks are there and what are the solutions? how familiar are we with the technology and how much development is needed? do we have the specialist people needed or can we train new people in time? what is the likelihood of quality problems and too late delivery (penalties and loss of reputation)? is our materials partner (TCAC) reliable regarding their share?

Risks, J-nose development tight schedule new customer new technology data Airbus/BAe not on time, loads late

Why then the J-nose development? Entry ticket to A380 => much bigger volume

PHASING Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping Submit and negotiate proposal Full scale development

Plan=>Do=>Check: Problem: material does not satisfy requirements During the design phase (the end of 1998) after Ten Cate tests: the glass/PPS composite material proved not to satisfy the strength requirements after prolonged exposure to moisture and extremes of temperatures These test were never concluded in the pre-study phase, owing to a number of different circumstances

How to cope with a great project setback? QUESTION: How to cope with a great project setback?

ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT: Crisis management! Inform client quickly and discuss route forward: creates commitment and confidence to work together in finding a solution Form crisis team made up of one’s own experts + client + externals (including TU’s) analysis cause / effect brainstorm solutions + selection actions definition / allocation 2x /week progress monitoring/co-ordination with parties: Keep own management well informed

Problem: material does not satisfy requirements Technical solution: Quickly weigh up different alternatives: A different fibre: the more costly but stronger S-glass instead of E-glass. Not feasible in the short time that was available Different ‘sizing’ (type of bonding agent) between the fibre and the resin. Improvements to strength proved feasible but drawbacks in processability later emerged

The A340-500/600 J-nose

Assembly, welding ribs/stiffeners

Weld quality, J-nose outer surface

Lessons learned

For the introduction of truly new technology, you need: For the introduction of truly new technology, you need: - a customer product champion - a good plan and control - a fall back scenario + support - be prepared for crisis management

2) Everybody together: Co-location in Hoogeveen Optimum Team Work

opportunity: welded fixed wing l/e 3) Strategy follows opportunity opportunity: welded fixed wing l/e Airbus A340-600 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 pressurized floors Gulfstream GV welded MUC door Fokker 50 control surfaces

4) Start small and have potential for growth first application: limited volume on ‘inboard J-nose’ A340-500/600 followed by growth: ‘J-nose’ on full A380 mid- & outboard wing

First application: A340-500/600

A380 J-nose

A380 J-nose improved concept: large volume production second generation welding tools and welding strip improved press-forming of ribs large volume production

Stork Fokker AESP, Hoogeveen composites Stork Fokker AESP, Hoogeveen

A380 wing (Broughton, UK) Photo courtesy Airbus

Case 2 : DUT 2004 Race Car Design & Build & Race Ultra light weight design principle Highest effort in body design & production and Engine tuning, OK Plan=>Do=>Check: Machined parts designed and ordered too late! No capacity anymore at suppliers. Threat: Too late assembly, no time to test Question: What should we do now???

ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT: Crisis management! Analyse the Critical Path => Turning & Milling of relative simple alu parts Form crisis team of own + externals (Fokker coaches) brainstorm solutions + selection: BUY Lathe and Milling machine and train DUT team members! actions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoring RESULT : car ready just in time for tests and race!

Case 3: G650 thermoplastic control surfaces Elevators Rudder

1990 2000 2010 Co-consolidated panels, beams Welded control surfaces First large scale assembly: Welded fixed wing leading edges A340 Ca/PEI Glass/PPS Ca/PPS Ca/PEKK & PEEK Follow-up development: A380 outboard fixed leading edge First series production: Fairchild Dornier ribs First welded assembly: MUC door Fo50 First primary structure: GV pressure floors 1990 2000 2010

CVO Technology development project ‘thermoplastic control surfaces’ 2003 - 2009 Design studies: dimensioning, certification, materials&processes Skins: co-consolidation New material Assembly: welding Spars: co-consolidation Ribs: press forming

Problem erupted: first product not OK Late design because of late customer inputs Bad Welds Contour not OK Plan=>Do=>Check: Root Cause : Tooling too weak, long lead time Threat: Too late assembly, & delivery Question: What should we do now???

ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT: IMPROVISE and BRUTE FORCE Analyse the Critical Path => Tooling needs to be upgraded Form crisis team brainstorm solutions + selection: Re-inforce tooling by temporary stiffeners switch to 24/7 production with frequent checks actions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoring RESULT : First shipsets just in time for static tests and first flight!

Robot welding after improvements

Dec 2008: welding FAA approved

Gulfstream 650 Savannah, Sept 2009

Wat leren we hier van Elk project kan niet zonder een projectplan JUIST voor R&D omdat dat nieuw is: Breek je SCOPE op in meetbare DELIVERABLES Zet duidelijk je MILESTONES neer, met speling op het eind Plan je ACTIVITEITEN qua logica en samen met Murphy: zorg ook voor plan B voor elk risico Gebruik ervaring voor inschatting van duur en haalbaarheid Doe het samen (Visual Plan) en check het Kritieke Pad (er is er altijd 1!) Control hoort er altijd bij; PLAN>DO>CHECK>ACT (elke week / dag), en wees voorbereid op Crisis Management Blijf er voor gaan als TEAM, help elkaar en schakel!

Wat gaan jullie NU anders doen? Formula Student Formula Zero Eco Runner Nova Bike Human Powered Team Zonneboot ANDER eigen project