A cooperation between PBL, WUR and UBC Ben ten Brink PBL, 20-10-2010

Request from UNEP In 2008: Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI) In 2010: Cost of Policy Action (COPA) Global Reduce loss biodiversity & EGS Bio-physical terms Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

8 options (derived from GBO3) Increase agri-productivity (closing yield gap + 40%) Reducing food loss (farm to fork -33%) Change diet (healthy meat diet, no meat) Mitigate climate change to + 2oC (with & without biofuels) Improve forest management (wood plantations + RIL) Reduce deforestation (no loss C-rich forest) Expand protected areas (20%-50% per biome) Restore marine fish stocks & aquaculture (-30-70% effort) + Option combination (ambitious but feasible) compared to BAU scenario Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

How do we model? LEITAP – TIMER – IMAGE – GLOBIO - EcoOcean models indicators Baseline scenario Population Economic growth Technology Lifestyle Indirect drivers Pressures Effects Agriculture Forestry / fisheries Infrastr / urbani Fragmentation Climate change Eutrophication Biodiversity natural area Wilderness MSA (quality) EGS inland water quality C-seq Climate change T Food / fish Timber Biofuel Economic food consumption land price Food demand Wood demand Energy demand Energy mix Trade Options: Closing yield gap Post harvest loss Diet change (meat) Improved forestry Reduced deforest CCM, bio-fuels Protected areas Aqua-culture Liberalisation trade Economic valuation Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

MSA Functions MSA: average of original populations Natural ext. use 50% int. use Climate regulation Energy Soil protection Food - Freshwater 4 collaps collaps Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010 MSA

Characteristics 2000-> 2050: Baseline scenario: no new policies Characteristics 2000-> 2050: 1.5 x global population 1.6 x food productivity 1.6 x fish demand 1.4 x wood demand 2.5 x global energy use 3 x income per person Kyoto implemented Sources: UN, FAO, Cork et al, EFI/Arets et al, IEA, OECD Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Baseline: 10% loss MSA 2000 - 2050 Similar to loss 1.5 entire USA Species-rich ecosystems Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010 Similar to loss 1.5 entire USA = 1.5 x USA

Baseline: loss natural area & wilderness 2000 - 2050 Natural area – 10 million km2 Wilderness area – 15 million km2 Earth total: 130 million km2) Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Baseline 2000 Little sequence of snapshots of biodiversity loss since 1970 reveals the scale of the problem. Look at US Mid-West, Ukraine and India Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Baseline 2050 Little sequence of snapshots of biodiversity loss since 1970 reveals the scale of the problem. Look at US Mid-West, Ukraine and India Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Prevented loss per option (MSA) PL: - 10% Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Options combined Options included in combination Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Prevented loss of option combination (MSA) agri forestry infra climate - 50% Verlies tussen 2000 en 2050 met de helft terug gebracht Resterend: infrastructuur, klimaatverandering, bosbouw Meer voedsel geproduceerd Klimaat beperkt tot +1,5 graden - op weg naar EU doel Pakket is een voorbeeld, niet alles doorgerekend De drukken die overblijven zijn deels de drukken waarvoor we nog geen opties hebben ontwikkeld en doorgerekend, maar ook waar we niet veel aan kunnen doen. Er zijn ook nog drukken die niet in het model zitten: vervuiling, invasie van exoten, mijnbouw, vuur, degradatie gronden. Met een 450ppm inspanning heb je nog steeds klimaatverandering - maar verder omlaag zal je niet snel komen. Paradoxaal: rol bosbouw wordt groter, maar dat komt doordat ontbossing wordt gestopt (= eenmalig gebruik) en je dan meer ruimte voor duurzame bosbouw nodig hebt. Ontbossing om nieuwe landbouwgrond te krijgen wordt niet bij bosbouw gerekend. Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Prevented loss of option combination (natural area & wilderness) Natural area 10 million km2 less Wilderness area 11 million km2 less (Earth total: 130 million km2) Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

2010 Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

2050 baseline Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

2050 option combination Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Side-effects on climate change, food, fisheries, water quality Climate change mitigation: 20% contribution Food price: 20% decrease Fish catch: 30% increase Water quality: 30% less eutrophication Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

Conclusions Ambitious option package can half loss by 2050, but not halt Autonomous socio-economic growth is huge PA alone not sufficient to significantly reduce loss Additional changes in production and consumption prerequisite Productivity increase is key (if not..) Combine land demanding (e.g. plantation, biofuels) with land relieving options (price effects; e.g. productivity, diet) Align with climate change, MDGs, food & wood & energy policies This is just a start: many more options to explore (IPBES?) Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010

More info: http://www.pbl.nl/nl/publicaties/2010/Rethinking-Global-Biodiversity-Strategies_-Exploring-structural-changes-in-production-and-consumption-to-reduce-biodiversity-loss.html Thank you Ben ten Brink COP10 side event 20-10-2010