Do not put content on the brand signature area Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist ING Belgium November 2009 Herstel of doodlopend straatje?

Presentatie over: "Do not put content on the brand signature area Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist ING Belgium November 2009 Herstel of doodlopend straatje?"— Transcript van de presentatie:

1 Do not put content on the brand signature area Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist ING Belgium November 2009 Herstel of doodlopend straatje?

2 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 2 De lettersoep van de economist: U, V, W, L?

3 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 3 Het herstel lijkt aangebroken 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China EMU US Japan OESO voorlopende indicator 6m verandering

4 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 4 Page 4 Recessies gecombineerd met een bankencrisis resulteren in diepe recessie en zwakke hernemingen Economic Research 95 100 105 024681012 Financiële crisesandere Recessies en hernemingen (100 = top in output)

5 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 5 De banken zijn nog altijd zwak…

6 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 6 maar het ergste lijkt voorbij… Daily QITFSR5EA=GFI CDS senior leningen Europese banken

7 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 7 Amerikaanse vastgoedmarkt krabbelt overeind 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Amerikaanse huizenprijzen (Case-Shiller-index)

8 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 8 Waarde van “subprime papier”

9 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 9 China draagt zijn steentje bij…

10 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 10 …en het is binnenlandse groei! 200420052006200720082009 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Chinese autoverkopen joj % Chinese export joj %

11 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 11 Huidige groeimotoren Westerse landen Export (maar sterke euro helpt niet in de Eurozone) Voorraadopbouw (= tijdelijk) Consumptie (dank zij overheidsstimuli) Maar! Overheidsschulden moeten afgebouwd worden Banken strenger gereguleerd

12 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 12 Werkloosheid blijft een probleem 9798990001020304050607080910 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 werkloosheidsverwachtingen EMU 9m vooroplopend EMU werkloosheidsgraad

13 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 13 …maar consument toch optimistischer

14 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 14 Diepe recessie gevolgd door mager herstel 2007 2008 20092010 USA2.10.4-2.71.9 Eurozone2.60.6 -3.91.4 België2.61.1-3.21.3 Japan2.3-0.7 -5.62.0 China11.4 9.0 8.311.0 V.K. 2.60.7 -4.31.3

15 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 15 Is de stijging van de grondstoffenprijzen voorbarig?

16 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 16 Grondstoffenverbruik groeilanden (in % van de markt) OlieAluminiumKoperGraan 199343.1%32.4%35.2%76.9% 200851.8%59.2%61.7%70.7% Bron: IMF

17 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 17 China blijft belangrijke invloed op grondstoffenprijs 200120022003200420052006200720082009 200 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2700 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 olieprijs in $ Chinese olie-import in volume

18 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 18 Zal geldcreatie tot hyperinflatie leiden?

19 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 19 Weinig signalen in de VS… 20052006200720082009 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 US geldbasis joj% US brede geldhoeveelheid joj %

20 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 20 …noch in Europa 20052006200720082009 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 EMU basisgeld joj % EMU brede geldhoeveelheid joj %

21 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 21 Onderliggend weinig inflatiegevaar 99000102030405060708091011 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 EMU werkloosheid 1 jr vooroplopend EMU kerninflatie (omgekeerde schaal)

22 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 22 Centrale bankiers zijn niet gehaast Economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. I have always said that we have to be cautious and prudent, and that we probably have a bumpy road ahead of us.

23 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 23 Eerste renteverhoging in Europa verwacht in Q4 2010 199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 ECB refi rente Krediet aan niet-financiële ondernemingen joj % Krediet aan huishoudens joj % 1 jr vooroplopend

24 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 24 …maar liquiditeit zal eerder afgebouwd worden 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 spread Euribor 1W - Refi rate

25 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 25 Optimale korte rente in de EMU (Taylor-regel) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 99000102030405060708091011 ECB refi rate Taylor regel

26 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 26 Overheidsschuld zit in de lift bron: IMF Overheidsschuld als % BBP

27 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 27 Trend van lange-termijnrente is opwaarts… 200420052006200720082009 -3.50 -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -0.50 0 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 Duitse 10jr-rente EMU conjunctuurbarometer

28 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 28 …maar korte rente is belangrijk anker 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 -0.50 0 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 10jr Duitse rente - refi rente

29 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 29 Indirecte monetaire financiering van schuld 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 EMU 10jr obligatierente EMU banken: beleggingen in overheidsobligaties(inverse schaal)

30 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 30 Rentevoorspellingen EMU (swap) NuEind 2009Juni 2010Eind 2010 Eind 2011 Refi rate1.00 1.252.50 3m0.800.901.101.502.70 2 jr1.701.752.102.703.60 10 jr3.503.603.804.104.60

31 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet 31 Besluit Het ergste is achter de rug. De economie kent een matig herstel Inflatie blijft voorlopig onder controle Schuldsituatie is een probleem Korte en lange rente kennen beperkte stijging in 2010 Rentecurve wordt een stuk platter