Do not put content on the brand signature area Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist ING Belgium November 2009 Herstel of doodlopend straatje?

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 2 De lettersoep van de economist: U, V, W, L?

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 3 Het herstel lijkt aangebroken China EMU US Japan OESO voorlopende indicator 6m verandering

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 4 Page 4 Recessies gecombineerd met een bankencrisis resulteren in diepe recessie en zwakke hernemingen Economic Research Financiële crisesandere Recessies en hernemingen (100 = top in output)

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 5 De banken zijn nog altijd zwak…

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 6 maar het ergste lijkt voorbij… Daily QITFSR5EA=GFI CDS senior leningen Europese banken

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 7 Amerikaanse vastgoedmarkt krabbelt overeind Amerikaanse huizenprijzen (Case-Shiller-index)

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 8 Waarde van “subprime papier”

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 9 China draagt zijn steentje bij…

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 10 …en het is binnenlandse groei! Chinese autoverkopen joj % Chinese export joj %

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 11 Huidige groeimotoren Westerse landen Export (maar sterke euro helpt niet in de Eurozone) Voorraadopbouw (= tijdelijk) Consumptie (dank zij overheidsstimuli) Maar! Overheidsschulden moeten afgebouwd worden Banken strenger gereguleerd

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 12 Werkloosheid blijft een probleem werkloosheidsverwachtingen EMU 9m vooroplopend EMU werkloosheidsgraad

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 13 …maar consument toch optimistischer

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 14 Diepe recessie gevolgd door mager herstel USA Eurozone België Japan China V.K

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 15 Is de stijging van de grondstoffenprijzen voorbarig?

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 16 Grondstoffenverbruik groeilanden (in % van de markt) OlieAluminiumKoperGraan %32.4%35.2%76.9% %59.2%61.7%70.7% Bron: IMF

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 17 China blijft belangrijke invloed op grondstoffenprijs olieprijs in $ Chinese olie-import in volume

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 18 Zal geldcreatie tot hyperinflatie leiden?

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 19 Weinig signalen in de VS… US geldbasis joj% US brede geldhoeveelheid joj %

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 20 …noch in Europa EMU basisgeld joj % EMU brede geldhoeveelheid joj %

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 21 Onderliggend weinig inflatiegevaar EMU werkloosheid 1 jr vooroplopend EMU kerninflatie (omgekeerde schaal)

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 22 Centrale bankiers zijn niet gehaast Economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. I have always said that we have to be cautious and prudent, and that we probably have a bumpy road ahead of us.

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 23 Eerste renteverhoging in Europa verwacht in Q ECB refi rente Krediet aan niet-financiële ondernemingen joj % Krediet aan huishoudens joj % 1 jr vooroplopend

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 24 …maar liquiditeit zal eerder afgebouwd worden spread Euribor 1W - Refi rate

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 25 Optimale korte rente in de EMU (Taylor-regel) ECB refi rate Taylor regel

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 26 Overheidsschuld zit in de lift bron: IMF Overheidsschuld als % BBP

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 27 Trend van lange-termijnrente is opwaarts… Duitse 10jr-rente EMU conjunctuurbarometer

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 28 …maar korte rente is belangrijk anker jr Duitse rente - refi rente

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 29 Indirecte monetaire financiering van schuld EMU 10jr obligatierente EMU banken: beleggingen in overheidsobligaties(inverse schaal)

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 30 Rentevoorspellingen EMU (swap) NuEind 2009Juni 2010Eind 2010 Eind 2011 Refi rate m jr jr

Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 31 Besluit Het ergste is achter de rug. De economie kent een matig herstel Inflatie blijft voorlopig onder controle Schuldsituatie is een probleem Korte en lange rente kennen beperkte stijging in 2010 Rentecurve wordt een stuk platter