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"We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's.

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Presentatie over: ""We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's."— Transcript van de presentatie:

1 "We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam. The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us. It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.” - Dr. Carl Sagan The photo was taken by Voyager 1 in 1990 as it sailed away from Earth, more than 4 billion miles in the distance.

2 Futureshock Arjen Kamphuis Don’t Panic!

3 is er structuur in de chaos Van een afstand…

4 Voorbeeld: bank Bankieren gaat 99% via web voor consumenten en klein-zakelijk gebruik het vertrouwen is in de instelling, het brand 'bank X' Voor zover er sprake is van een relatie komt daar geen mens aan te pas van de kant van de bank (na 1 telefoontje met een call-center)

5 Voorbeeld: Reisbureau Online reis zoeken of voordelig ticket vinden Online ticket, hotel, auto, enz... boeken & betalen Online inchecked Zelf boardingpass printen Bagage afgeven Niet zo veel mensen meer bij betrokken Wel vertrouwen in en relatie met allerlei partijen De relatie is met de brands, niet met de mensen

6 Veranderingen: Muziekindustrie Zelf muziek downloaden Zelf branden op iPod zetten Online betalen (of niet) Reclame via mond tot mond Complete tussenhandel staat ter discussie

7 Diverse markten met nieuwe models Muziek industrie Reis & Toerisme branche Banking & Financiëele dienstverlening Veroorzaakt door technologie uit

8 Versnelde vooruitgang Geleidelijke vooruitgang Onze huidige technologie Neemt de snelheid van verandering toe? Bron: Foresight Institute Stand van technische mogelijkheden Tijd Zijn we hier in de tijd? Of hier?

9 Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw Bionic Informatie technologie Internet Super- computers Robotica K.I. Mobiel ICT Tijd

10 Democratisering van kennisverspreiding

11 Generaties worden korter 55+: ? Zo gaan we niet met elkaar om. 30+: is een belangrijk communicatie middel, zowel zakelijk als prive 20+: is handig voor zakelijk gebruik, voor prive is SMS en chat beter 10+: ? Dat doe ik met m'n oma!

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15 it's not a game, it's a sales channel... Website Chat SMS Podcast Secondlife Hoe bouw je een relatie?

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17 Sinds 1880… Quantum computers ? Microprocessor Electronische computers Mechanische rekenmachines “... Computers met vaste kosten verdubbelen in snelheid en complexiteit elke 18 maanden...” Dr. Andy Moore, Oprichter Intel

18 Aantal zetten K10K100K1M10M Rekenkracht MIPS Schaak punten Bernstein, IBM 704, 1957 MacHack, PDP-6, 1966 Belle, 1983 Crazy Blitz, Crazy 1, 1981 Chiptest, 1987 Deep Thought, 1989 Deep Thought II, 1991 Deep Blue, 1997 Chess 4.0, CDC 6400, 1973 MacHack, PDP-10, 1970 Chess 4.6, Cyber 176, 1977 Kasparov Grand Master Senior Master Master Class D Class C Class B Class A Expert Kwantiteit = kwaliteit ?

19 "Dave Striver loved the university - its ivy-covered clocktowers, its ancient and sturdy brick, and its sun- splashed verdant greens and eager youth. The university, contrary to popular opinion, is far from free of the stark unforgiving trials of the business world: academia has its own tests, and some are as merciless as any in the marketplace. A prime example is the dissertation defense: to earn the Ph.D., to become a doctor, one must pass an oral examination on one's dissertation. This was a test Professor Edward Hart enjoyed giving."

20 Evolutie van computers Rekenkracht equivalent per $1000 Computer Year Miljoen MIPS per $1000 (1997 Dollars) / / Miljoen 1 / Miljard Bron: Hans Moravec Monroe Calcu- lator Burroughs Class 16 IBM Tabulator Colossus ENIAC IBM 704 IBM 7090 IBM 1130 CDC 7600 Apple II Mac II Gateway G6-200 Commodore 64 IBM PC Power Tower 180e IBM PS/2 90 Mac Iltx Sun-3 DEC VAX 11/780 SDS 920 IBM 360/75 IBM Trend 1985 Trend 1965 Trend Apple G4 P4 G5 Cell

21 Mijn eerste computer... (1977) Mijn computer... (2005)

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23 Bio- technologie Bionica Lichaams vervanging Internet Super- computers Robotica K.I. Informatie technologie Mobile ICT Tijd Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw

24 Biotechnologie and bionica (krantenkoppen) Monkey head transplanted successfully First artificial womb tested in Japan Olympics 200 m record is seconds Ratbrain flies jet fighter simulator Custom genetically designed mouse: $250 First human cloned-baby? (????????)

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32 Grenzen vervagen…

33 MEMS Nano technologie Universele monteur Materiaal technologie Bio- technologie Bionica Lichaams vervanging Internet Super- computers Robotica K.I. Informatie technologie Mobile ICT Tijd Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw

34 Nano geheugenchip: 2008

35 Nano geheugenchip: 2008

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37 Zelfreplicerende brandstofcel

38 Nanotechnologie: niet bouwen maar groeien

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40 Bron: Foresight Institute

41 Bron: Nanomedicine

42 ? Nano technologie Lichaams vervanging KI ICT Time

43 Doe iets dat relevant is

44 Neem even afstand

45 cluetrain.com kurzweilai.net foresight.org betterhumans.com technologyreview.com

46 "We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam. The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us. It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.” - Dr. Carl Sagan The photo was taken by Voyager 1 in 1990 as it sailed away from Earth, more than 4 billion miles in the distance.


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