2 Beleggen in de toekomst! Emerging Markets:Beleggen in de toekomst!Alex Neve, Hoofd Investment SpecialistsZellik, 18 november 2006
3 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets?Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten
4 Opkomend beleggen vs 'normaal' beleggen: een duurzame verschuiving 85% van de wereldbevolking15% van de beurs wereldwijdExporteur‘Normaal’ beleggen’:15% van de wereldbevolking85% van de beurs wereldwijdImporteurPopulation global emerging markets200m150m100m50mMaleFemale0- 45- 910-1415- 1920- 2425- 2930- 3435- 3940- 4445- 4950- 5455- 5960- 6465- 6970- 7475- 7980+Population G7-countries30m20m10m
5 Opkomend beleggen: monetair beleid sterk verbeterd BRIC consumer price inflation %Vergeleken met eigen verleden en met "ontwikkelde" economieënOverschot op lopende rekeningGrote valuta reservesLagere overheidstekortenLaag inflatie niveau
6 Opkomend beleggen: BRIC landen halen de G6 landen in Bron: Goldman Sachs
7 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving en Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets?Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten
9 Emerging Markets: een laag gewaardeerde aandelenmarkt Door hogere groei is het verschil in waardering nog hoog (20-25%)...... en dus zouden Emerging Markets nog beter kunnen blijven renderen!Bron MSCI, IBES, Robeco
10 Hoe te profiteren van de ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets? US consumption as % of GDP and inflation61.062.063.064.065.066.067.068.069.070.071.019691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320051.03.05.07.09.011.013.015.0ConsumptionCPI inflationHoge groei binnenlandse vraagOnderwaardering van munteenheidSterke toename van outsourcingVeel vraag naar grondstoffen
11 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets?Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten
12 Robeco Emerging Markets Een traditie in het betreden van nieuwe marktenRobeco: pionier in Global Emerging MarketsEerste "Emerging Markets" belegging in 1930Global Emerging Markets equity team sinds 1994South Africa1935Indonesia1939Japan1964Hong Kong1968Turkey/East.Europe1994Singapore1973Brazil1975India1991Philippines1976Peru1930Egypt1998ROBECO PRESENCE IN LOCAL MARKETS
13 Beleggingsteam COMPLEMENTARY INVESTMENT SKILLS WIM-HEIN PALS (LEAD MANAGER)Korea, MalaysiaStrong thematic thinker, focus on growthFinal responsibility country and currency allocationBackground in Business Economics / Ind. EngineeringManager of retail Emerging Markets fundYears of experience 15, Years with Robeco 15VICTORA MIO, CFA CPAResearch analyst AsiaNative speaker of Cantonese languageFocus on fundamental researchExperience in company valuationBackground in Corporate Finance / Financial ControlYears of experience 14, Years with Robeco 1KARNAIL SANGHA, CFAIndia, Indonesia, Thailand, PhilippinesNative speaker of Hindi and Punjabi languagesFundamental analystBackground in Business EconomicsYears of experience 6, Years with Robeco 5ROB SCHELLEKENSIsrael, Russia, Czech Rep., Hungary, PolandExperience in Robeco’s Global Industrials teamBackground in Business EconomicsYears of experience 3, Years with Robeco 1SEBASTIAAN DE BONT, CFAChina, TaiwanFund Manager Robeco Chinese EquitiesBackground in Business EconomicsYears of experience 5, Years with Robeco 5COMPLEMENTARY INVESTMENT SKILLSThe team is a well balanced combination of complementary qualifications: two economists, two quantitative specialists and two Portfolio Managers with a science background.TWO SUB-TEAMSLatin America & Emerging Europe and Africa: Paul, Jaap, RobAsia: Wim-Hein, Karnail, SebastiaanVictoria Mio is senior research analyst and supports fundamental analysis for the Asian regionPAUL VAN HOMELEN, CFASouth America, TurkeyExperience in managing quantitative productsFinal responsibility country and currency allocationBackground in Econometrics / Quantitative researchManager of institutional Emerging Markets fundYears of experience 10, Years with Robeco 10JAAP VAN DER HARTMexico, AfricaQuantitative backgroundStrong top-down capabilitiesFinal responsibility country and currency allocationBackground in Econometrics / Quantitative researchYears of experience 11, Years with Robeco 11
14 BeleggingsfilosofieStrategieën om van lokale markt tendensen te profiterenMarkt tendensenRobeco Emerging Markets strategieLocale belegger focus op eigen landActieve landen allocatieGeruchten cultuur en kudde gedragGedisciplineerde fundamentele analyseSterke korte termijn gerichtheidConsistente focus op lange termijn“Behavioral biases”Gebruik van kwantitatieve modellenEmerging markets are in a constant state of flux, reflecting actions by a variety of participants with different objectives and constraints. This frequently produces inefficiencies in the evaluation of risk and reward. The Emerging Markets team seeks to identify and exploit these inefficiencies by embarking on different investment strategies that use both qualitative and quantitative research techniques. Our investment philosophy for emerging markets equities can be explained as follows:In emerging markets, local investors tend to focus only on their home country. This means that differences in local sentiment can be captured by using active country allocation strategies.Other inefficiencies related to emerging markets investing include the deviation from fundamentals. Countries, asset classes and companies can all fall in and out of favour depending on anything from economic trends to investors' appetite for risk. With disciplined and consistent fundamental analysis, the Emerging Markets team works around these biases.Most investors in emerging markets have a short-term focus, fed by headlines in the local press. By using a long-term investment view, we avoid this local short-term noise inherent to emerging markets.Robeco makes active use of quantitative models in its Emerging Markets strategy. As these models are less commonly used in emerging markets, there is potential upside from quantitative models that exploit behavioral biases of investors.Profiteer van de locale markt sentimenten in emerging marketsdoor eengedisciplineerd en op lange termijn gericht beleggingsproces!
15 COUNTRY AND CURRENCY ALLOCATION BeleggingsprocesEen beleggingsproces in 2 stappen:PORTFOLIOSTOCK SELECTIONCOUNTRY AND CURRENCY ALLOCATIONSTEP 1STEP 2- Fundamentele analyse- Kwantitatieve analyse- Thema’s uit de top-down analyse- Fundamenteel raamwerk- Kwantitatieve rangschikkingThe first step in the investment process is to select countries with a strong economic and political outlook. Currency allocation decisions are part of this process to control the high volatility inherent to emerging markets currencies.As a second step, the team members identify stocks within the targeted countries with high return potential. During the stock selection process, they apply insights gained from their top-down country analysis. Both fundamental and quantitative techniques are used to examine country and stock attractiveness, while fundamental and technical analyses are used to assess currency positioning.Result of our approach: Better emerging markets investment decisions. It enables us to reduce economic and political risk inherent in emerging markets AND it improves our stock selection capabilities.Our belief is illustrated by the fact that during ten out of the past eleven years, the country allocation decisions have added value to the portfolio.
16 Gemiddelde Jaarrendementen Institutional Emerging Markets Fund, Gross of fees, based on Net Asset Value; All figures in EUR; Annual performance approximately 25 basis points from securities lendingANNUALIZED RETURNS (%)As ofYTD1Year23510February1994Robeco Emerging Markets Equities*0.3825.5839.2431.3817.6010.545.73S&P IFC Composite1.9324.1535.2128.9015.969.194.22OUTPERFORMANCE-1.521.152.991.921.421.241.44INFORMATION RATIO0.361.090.660.520.270.30TRACKING ERROR3.232.732.912.754.654.86Outperformance was realized gradually over the last eleven years, outperforming the S&P IFC Composite Index in eight years.Outperformance was realized both in upward markets (four out of five) and downward markets (four out of six).Stabiel trackrecord in zeer uiteenlopende marktomstandigheden….
17 Rendementsattributie Attribution of performance drivers to Robeco Emerging Markets EquitiesPart of excess return attributed by:CalendarYearFundReturnOutperformanceTo benchmarkCountryAllocationStockSelectionCurrencyPositioning1995-13.69%1.41%0.89%-0.47%0.99%199624.88%5.63%3.40%2.43%-0.20%199713.43%13.48%8.67%2.69%2.12%1998-32.99%-7.36%0.87%-8.05%-0.18%199995.79%1.10%8.74%-7.25%-0.39%2000-25.05%2.23%2.72%-0.60%0.11%20016.94%0.40%-0.73%0.44%2002-19.73%-1.20%0.07%-1.34%200336.14%4.40%0.41%1.90%2.09%200419.05%-0.09%-1.95%1.63%0.22%200563.71%5.54%1.20%5.71%-1.36%20064.85%-1.63%0.29%-1.77%The combination of three independent performance drivers has resulted in a more stable performance pattern. By investing only in those countries least likely to be influenced by emerging markets turmoil, positive country allocation can neutralize the negative stock selection attribution.For example, in 1999 the team’s country analysis already indicated that investments in Argentina were unattractive. The decision not to invest in Argentinean stocks obviously turned out to be a wise one.Next to country allocation and stock selection, currency positioning had significant contributions as well.For example in 1997, the emerging markets team anticipated the fall of the Thai baht and sold the currency short through forward contracts when the baht started its devaluation on July 1st, This currency hedge proved to be very successful.Asian crisisRussian crisisArgentina crisis2006 YTD: until January 31, 2006Cumulative excess return attribution: UPDATE NUMBERS EVERY QUARTERCountry allocation: %Stock selection: %Currency positioning: 3.81%Note on differences in returns on sheet 20 and 21. On sheet 20 annualized returns are listed on Global Composite numbers, measured from the end of last month XX years (1,2,3,5,10 etc) back in time. On sheet 21 total calendar year returns are visualized for the D-share, i.e. from start to end of year. That’s why the outperformance numbers differ! Only in january, the numbers will be the same….…. met name gedreven door uitstekende landenallocatie
18 Robeco Emerging Markets: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten Regionale verdelingEmerging Azië 58%Emerging Latijns America 19%Emerging Europa/Afrika 23%Zes grootste landenChina & Taiwan 26%Korea 23%Brazilië 13%Rusland 13%Zuid Afrika 7%India 7%EmergingLatijns Amerika19%Europa/Afrika23%Azië58%
19 Korea - consumenten aandeel Betaalbare hoogwaardige consumenten-elektronicaGroeiend marktaandeel in de wereldEén van de wereldspelers in mobieltjes (top 3)Wereldleider in geheugenchips en TFT-LCDsK/W’05 = 12,4 en ROE > 20%
20 Brazilie - aandeel in ijzererts Grootste ijzerertsproducent in de wereldLage delvingskostenSterke vraag naar ijzererts uit o.a. ChinaK/W’05 = 8,5 en verwachte winstgroei 2006 van > 10%
21 Conclusie Duurzaam bovengemiddelde groei in Emerging Markets Relatief lage waardering Emerging MarketsRobeco Emerging Markets Equities: belangrijk om in de juiste trends en regio's te beleggen
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