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Alex Neve Robeco Bank De opkomende markten.

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Presentatie over: "Alex Neve Robeco Bank De opkomende markten."— Transcript van de presentatie:

1 Alex Neve Robeco Bank De opkomende markten

2 Beleggen in de toekomst!
Emerging Markets: Beleggen in de toekomst! Alex Neve, Hoofd Investment Specialists Zellik, 18 november 2006

3 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving
Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets? Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten

4 Opkomend beleggen vs 'normaal' beleggen: een duurzame verschuiving
85% van de wereldbevolking 15% van de beurs wereldwijd Exporteur ‘Normaal’ beleggen’: 15% van de wereldbevolking 85% van de beurs wereldwijd Importeur Population global emerging markets 200m 150m 100m 50m Male Female 0- 4 5- 9 10-14 15- 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 69 70- 74 75- 79 80+ Population G7-countries 30m 20m 10m

5 Opkomend beleggen: monetair beleid sterk verbeterd
BRIC consumer price inflation % Vergeleken met eigen verleden en met "ontwikkelde" economieën Overschot op lopende rekening Grote valuta reserves Lagere overheidstekorten Laag inflatie niveau

6 Opkomend beleggen: BRIC landen halen de G6 landen in
Bron: Goldman Sachs

7 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving en
Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets? Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten

8 Emerging Markets: aandelenmarkt houdt gelijke tred met hoge winstgroei

9 Emerging Markets: een laag gewaardeerde aandelenmarkt
Door hogere groei is het verschil in waardering nog hoog (20-25%)... ... en dus zouden Emerging Markets nog beter kunnen blijven renderen! Bron MSCI, IBES, Robeco

10 Hoe te profiteren van de ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets?
US consumption as % of GDP and inflation 61.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 Consumption CPI inflation Hoge groei binnenlandse vraag Onderwaardering van munteenheid Sterke toename van outsourcing Veel vraag naar grondstoffen

11 Agenda Emerging Markets: een duurzame verschuiving
Hoe te profiteren van ontwikkelingen in Emerging Markets? Robeco Emerging Market Funds: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten

12 Robeco Emerging Markets
Een traditie in het betreden van nieuwe markten Robeco: pionier in Global Emerging Markets Eerste "Emerging Markets" belegging in 1930 Global Emerging Markets equity team sinds 1994 South Africa 1935 Indonesia 1939 Japan 1964 Hong Kong 1968 Turkey/East.Europe 1994 Singapore 1973 Brazil 1975 India 1991 Philippines 1976 Peru 1930 Egypt 1998 ROBECO PRESENCE IN LOCAL MARKETS

WIM-HEIN PALS (LEAD MANAGER) Korea, Malaysia Strong thematic thinker, focus on growth Final responsibility country and currency allocation Background in Business Economics / Ind. Engineering Manager of retail Emerging Markets fund Years of experience 15, Years with Robeco 15 VICTORA MIO, CFA CPA Research analyst Asia Native speaker of Cantonese language Focus on fundamental research Experience in company valuation Background in Corporate Finance / Financial Control Years of experience 14, Years with Robeco 1 KARNAIL SANGHA, CFA India, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines Native speaker of Hindi and Punjabi languages Fundamental analyst Background in Business Economics Years of experience 6, Years with Robeco 5 ROB SCHELLEKENS Israel, Russia, Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland Experience in Robeco’s Global Industrials team Background in Business Economics Years of experience 3, Years with Robeco 1 SEBASTIAAN DE BONT, CFA China, Taiwan Fund Manager Robeco Chinese Equities Background in Business Economics Years of experience 5, Years with Robeco 5 COMPLEMENTARY INVESTMENT SKILLS The team is a well balanced combination of complementary qualifications: two economists, two quantitative specialists and two Portfolio Managers with a science background. TWO SUB-TEAMS Latin America & Emerging Europe and Africa: Paul, Jaap, Rob Asia: Wim-Hein, Karnail, Sebastiaan Victoria Mio is senior research analyst and supports fundamental analysis for the Asian region PAUL VAN HOMELEN, CFA South America, Turkey Experience in managing quantitative products Final responsibility country and currency allocation Background in Econometrics / Quantitative research Manager of institutional Emerging Markets fund Years of experience 10, Years with Robeco 10 JAAP VAN DER HART Mexico, Africa Quantitative background Strong top-down capabilities Final responsibility country and currency allocation Background in Econometrics / Quantitative research Years of experience 11, Years with Robeco 11

14 Beleggingsfilosofie Strategieën om van lokale markt tendensen te profiteren Markt tendensen Robeco Emerging Markets strategie Locale belegger focus op eigen land Actieve landen allocatie Geruchten cultuur en kudde gedrag Gedisciplineerde fundamentele analyse Sterke korte termijn gerichtheid Consistente focus op lange termijn “Behavioral biases” Gebruik van kwantitatieve modellen Emerging markets are in a constant state of flux, reflecting actions by a variety of participants with different objectives and constraints. This frequently produces inefficiencies in the evaluation of risk and reward. The Emerging Markets team seeks to identify and exploit these inefficiencies by embarking on different investment strategies that use both qualitative and quantitative research techniques. Our investment philosophy for emerging markets equities can be explained as follows: In emerging markets, local investors tend to focus only on their home country. This means that differences in local sentiment can be captured by using active country allocation strategies. Other inefficiencies related to emerging markets investing include the deviation from fundamentals. Countries, asset classes and companies can all fall in and out of favour depending on anything from economic trends to investors' appetite for risk. With disciplined and consistent fundamental analysis, the Emerging Markets team works around these biases. Most investors in emerging markets have a short-term focus, fed by headlines in the local press. By using a long-term investment view, we avoid this local short-term noise inherent to emerging markets. Robeco makes active use of quantitative models in its Emerging Markets strategy. As these models are less commonly used in emerging markets, there is potential upside from quantitative models that exploit behavioral biases of investors. Profiteer van de locale markt sentimenten in emerging markets door een gedisciplineerd en op lange termijn gericht beleggingsproces!

Beleggingsproces Een beleggingsproces in 2 stappen: PORTFOLIO STOCK SELECTION COUNTRY AND CURRENCY ALLOCATION STEP 1 STEP 2 - Fundamentele analyse - Kwantitatieve analyse - Thema’s uit de top-down analyse - Fundamenteel raamwerk - Kwantitatieve rangschikking The first step in the investment process is to select countries with a strong economic and political outlook. Currency allocation decisions are part of this process to control the high volatility inherent to emerging markets currencies. As a second step, the team members identify stocks within the targeted countries with high return potential. During the stock selection process, they apply insights gained from their top-down country analysis. Both fundamental and quantitative techniques are used to examine country and stock attractiveness, while fundamental and technical analyses are used to assess currency positioning. Result of our approach: Better emerging markets investment decisions. It enables us to reduce economic and political risk inherent in emerging markets AND it improves our stock selection capabilities. Our belief is illustrated by the fact that during ten out of the past eleven years, the country allocation decisions have added value to the portfolio.

16 Gemiddelde Jaarrendementen
Institutional Emerging Markets Fund, Gross of fees, based on Net Asset Value; All figures in EUR; Annual performance approximately 25 basis points from securities lending ANNUALIZED RETURNS (%) As of YTD 1 Year 2 3 5 10 February 1994 Robeco Emerging Markets Equities* 0.38 25.58 39.24 31.38 17.60 10.54 5.73 S&P IFC Composite 1.93 24.15 35.21 28.90 15.96 9.19 4.22 OUTPERFORMANCE -1.52 1.15 2.99 1.92 1.42 1.24 1.44 INFORMATION RATIO 0.36 1.09 0.66 0.52 0.27 0.30 TRACKING ERROR 3.23 2.73 2.91 2.75 4.65 4.86 Outperformance was realized gradually over the last eleven years, outperforming the S&P IFC Composite Index in eight years. Outperformance was realized both in upward markets (four out of five) and downward markets (four out of six). Stabiel trackrecord in zeer uiteenlopende marktomstandigheden….

17 Rendementsattributie
Attribution of performance drivers to Robeco Emerging Markets Equities Part of excess return attributed by: Calendar Year Fund Return Outperformance To benchmark Country Allocation Stock Selection Currency Positioning 1995 -13.69% 1.41% 0.89% -0.47% 0.99% 1996 24.88% 5.63% 3.40% 2.43% -0.20% 1997 13.43% 13.48% 8.67% 2.69% 2.12% 1998 -32.99% -7.36% 0.87% -8.05% -0.18% 1999 95.79% 1.10% 8.74% -7.25% -0.39% 2000 -25.05% 2.23% 2.72% -0.60% 0.11% 2001 6.94% 0.40% -0.73% 0.44% 2002 -19.73% -1.20% 0.07% -1.34% 2003 36.14% 4.40% 0.41% 1.90% 2.09% 2004 19.05% -0.09% -1.95% 1.63% 0.22% 2005 63.71% 5.54% 1.20% 5.71% -1.36% 2006 4.85% -1.63% 0.29% -1.77% The combination of three independent performance drivers has resulted in a more stable performance pattern. By investing only in those countries least likely to be influenced by emerging markets turmoil, positive country allocation can neutralize the negative stock selection attribution. For example, in 1999 the team’s country analysis already indicated that investments in Argentina were unattractive. The decision not to invest in Argentinean stocks obviously turned out to be a wise one. Next to country allocation and stock selection, currency positioning had significant contributions as well. For example in 1997, the emerging markets team anticipated the fall of the Thai baht and sold the currency short through forward contracts when the baht started its devaluation on July 1st, This currency hedge proved to be very successful. Asian crisis Russian crisis Argentina crisis 2006 YTD: until January 31, 2006 Cumulative excess return attribution: UPDATE NUMBERS EVERY QUARTER Country allocation: % Stock selection: % Currency positioning: 3.81% Note on differences in returns on sheet 20 and 21. On sheet 20 annualized returns are listed on Global Composite numbers, measured from the end of last month XX years (1,2,3,5,10 etc) back in time. On sheet 21 total calendar year returns are visualized for the D-share, i.e. from start to end of year. That’s why the outperformance numbers differ! Only in january, the numbers will be the same…. …. met name gedreven door uitstekende landenallocatie

18 Robeco Emerging Markets: het plaatsen van de juiste accenten
Regionale verdeling Emerging Azië 58% Emerging Latijns America 19% Emerging Europa/Afrika 23% Zes grootste landen China & Taiwan 26% Korea 23% Brazilië 13% Rusland 13% Zuid Afrika 7% India 7% Emerging Latijns Amerika 19% Europa/Afrika 23% Azië 58%

19 Korea - consumenten aandeel
Betaalbare hoogwaardige consumenten-elektronica Groeiend marktaandeel in de wereld Eén van de wereldspelers in mobieltjes (top 3) Wereldleider in geheugenchips en TFT-LCDs K/W’05 = 12,4 en ROE > 20%

20 Brazilie - aandeel in ijzererts
Grootste ijzerertsproducent in de wereld Lage delvingskosten Sterke vraag naar ijzererts uit o.a. China K/W’05 = 8,5 en verwachte winstgroei 2006 van > 10%

21 Conclusie Duurzaam bovengemiddelde groei in Emerging Markets
Relatief lage waardering Emerging Markets Robeco Emerging Markets Equities: belangrijk om in de juiste trends en regio's te beleggen

This presentation is prepared solely for securities institutions. This presentation is private and confidential and solely for the exclusive use of the person to whom it has been delivered by Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”). This presentation is prepared for information purposes only and may not be distributed, reproduced or published in whole or in part to any third party, without the prior written consent of Robeco. This term sheet is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein is indicative and remains subject to change and does not purport to be complete. Robeco makes no representation or warranty relating to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. This presentation does not deal with the risks associated with investing in any financial instrument and may not be relied upon in evaluating the merits of investing in any financial instrument. The content of this material should not be construed as investment, financial, strategic, legal, regulatory, accounting or tax advice. You must obtain your own independent investment, financial, strategic, legal, regulatory, accounting and tax advice with respect to any financial instrument discussed or described herein. Any offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any financial instrument, and any decision to invest therein, can and may only be based upon the information contained in any final prospectus relating to such financial instrument in accordance with the terms and selling restrictions set forth therein and only in a jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation or purchase is authorized under applicable laws. If the information contained in this presentation results in the publication of a prospectus, the prospectus will be made general available at None of the entities referred to herein will be bound to issue any financial instrument discussed or described herein or publish a related prospectus. This presentation is prepared by Robeco. Robeco or any of its affiliates accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or expense which you may incur as a result of acting or omitting to act in reliance on this presentation. Robeco is registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.

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