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Planning & Control van Research & Development projecten Mission Impossible? Ir Hans Minnee.

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Presentatie over: "Planning & Control van Research & Development projecten Mission Impossible? Ir Hans Minnee."— Transcript van de presentatie:

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2 Planning & Control van Research & Development projecten Mission Impossible? Ir Hans Minnee

3 Wat gaan we doen vandaag (en voortaan ?) Stellingen Stellingen Wat is project planning & control Wat is project planning & control 3 Cases R&D projecten 3 Cases R&D projecten Wat leren we ervan Wat leren we ervan Wat doe je ermee in je eigen project Wat doe je ermee in je eigen project

4 Stellingen The beauty of NOT planning is…… The beauty of NOT planning is…… that failure comes as a total surprise, instead of that failure comes as a total surprise, instead of being preceeded by weeks of worrying and agony!

5 Stellingen R & D is een ontdekkingsreis: Je weet niet waar je uitkomt Je weet niet waar je uitkomt Je weet niet hoe lang het duurt Je weet niet hoe lang het duurt Het heeft dus geen zin om dat te plannen!

6 Stellingen Failure to Plan Failure to Plan= Plan to Fail! Beter een vaag plan Beter een vaag plan dan helemaal geen plan

7 Wat is Planning van een project Een meetbaar resultaat van het project doel (Scope) omschrijven en vertalen & opdelen naar concrete activiteiten (Work Breakdown Structure) en + leveringen (Deliverables) die naar het doel leiden. Een meetbaar resultaat van het project doel (Scope) omschrijven en vertalen & opdelen naar concrete activiteiten (Work Breakdown Structure) en + leveringen (Deliverables) die naar het doel leiden. Logische activiteiten volgorde in WBS aangeven en in de tijd zetten (van laatste naar eerste) en in een ”netwerk” (parallele en serieele verbanden) Logische activiteiten volgorde in WBS aangeven en in de tijd zetten (van laatste naar eerste) en in een ”netwerk” (parallele en serieele verbanden) Aan activiteiten kosten en uren toewijzen (budget) Aan activiteiten kosten en uren toewijzen (budget) Een team formeren met juiste capaciteiten (kwalitatief + kwantitatief) en koppelen aan activiteiten (Organisation Breakdown Structure) Een team formeren met juiste capaciteiten (kwalitatief + kwantitatief) en koppelen aan activiteiten (Organisation Breakdown Structure) Afspraken maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden Afspraken maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden Identificeer risico´s en heb daarvoor alternatieven Identificeer risico´s en heb daarvoor alternatieven

8 Wat is Control van een project Regelmatig activiteiten meten qua voortgang zowel op tijd en op budget (naast performance) Regelmatig activiteiten meten qua voortgang zowel op tijd en op budget (naast performance) Vraag je als team af: gaan we zo de eindstreep halen qua performance, tijd en geld en wat zijn de bottlenecks (Kritieke Pad) in netwerk en de risico’s Vraag je als team af: gaan we zo de eindstreep halen qua performance, tijd en geld en wat zijn de bottlenecks (Kritieke Pad) in netwerk en de risico’s Analyseer oorzaak van vertraging en budgetoverschrijding ….en leer er van! Analyseer oorzaak van vertraging en budgetoverschrijding ….en leer er van! Stuur bij door andere oplossingen en nieuwe / betere afspraken te maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden. Stuur bij door andere oplossingen en nieuwe / betere afspraken te maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden.

9 Summary Planning & Control volg de Demming circle: volg de Demming circle: Plan => Do => Check => Act P DC AP

10 Case 1 Thermoplastic Airbus A340 J-Nose wing leading edge

11 What is a ‘J-nose’? ’J-nose’ wing torsion box slat access panel photo Airbus

12 Fokker Thermoplastics R&D, Technology status, 1998 Press-forming: in production status Press-forming: in production status Resistance Welding: proven on a demonstrator part, ready for industrialization Resistance Welding: proven on a demonstrator part, ready for industrialization Consolidation technology: R&D phase Consolidation technology: R&D phase Next step forward: full assembly on a series application full assembly on a series application customer: British Aerospace, A /600 customer: British Aerospace, A /600

13 Results of the first meeting with Airbus (AUK / BAe) potential for a business case: potential for a business case: Airbus / British Aerospace design Airbus / British Aerospace design Fokker production technology Fokker production technology Ten Cate material Ten Cate material good chemistry between people involved good chemistry between people involved new team leader at Airbus, willing to pick up a challenge new team leader at Airbus, willing to pick up a challenge agreement on a phased study with: agreement on a phased study with: a 1:1 prototype a 1:1 prototype calculations to support a business case calculations to support a business case

14 Business case J-nose $ weight aluminum thermoplastics thermosets -$ -w

15 QUESTION What should AUK bear in mind when considering a thermoplastic J-Nose rather than the prior (proven) metal version?

16 ANSWER: Weight savings (20%) offset against: costs per component basis and for installation, on a per-aircraft basis costs per component basis and for installation, on a per-aircraft basis investments in design modifications, material specs, co- operation with Fokker investments in design modifications, material specs, co- operation with Fokker risks: what if it doesn’t work or Fokker is late? risks: what if it doesn’t work or Fokker is late?

17 1. Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping 2. Submit and negotiate proposal 3. Full scale development PHASING

18 Development of the Business Case: Feasibility Study AUK wants to reduce risks: agrees with Fokker that a demonstrator should be developed and built AUK wants to reduce risks: agrees with Fokker that a demonstrator should be developed and built Is prepared to pay for a demonstrator (Phase 2 of feasibility study) Is prepared to pay for a demonstrator (Phase 2 of feasibility study)

19 The prototype: 1.5 metres in length simplified prismatic cross- section with prototype tools Skin sheet, ‘consolidated’ in an oven moul d Pressed ribs and stiffeners moul d Ribs, welded onto skin sheet mould

20 Problem definition: Delivery time  It is mid January. Phase 2 will not be complete till the end of May. Main reason: duration of tooling AUK ‘NEED DATE’ PROTO JAN FEBMAR APR MAY PHASE 1 PHASE 2: demonstrator GO/NO-GO tools production  For AUK, however, the go/no- go decision point is at the end of April, 1 month earlier. The proto absolutely has to be in Filton by then QUESTION: How to solve this?

21 Answer:  Make all resources available, including a full free hand for the best specialist within the company  Have a dedicated Team in 1 place  Analyse Critical Path => tooling and process development  Start on proto tools at own expense, a month before finalisation of phase 1  Set up an exact planning and check/act continuously

22 A ‘J-nose’ prototype (1998) AUK: ‘sounds like metal, must be good’AUK: ‘sounds like metal, must be good’ operators: repair friendlyoperators: repair friendly

23 PHASING 1. Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping 2. Submit and negotiate proposal 3. Full scale development

24 Fokker Proposal to AUK : basic input Technical description: Technical description: Design & fabrication concept Design & fabrication concept Calculation of costs: Calculation of costs: Recurring costs (RC): per product, with learning effect and inflation Recurring costs (RC): per product, with learning effect and inflation Non-recurring costs (NRC): design, tools (moulds), work preparation Non-recurring costs (NRC): design, tools (moulds), work preparation Completion time Planning: Completion time Planning: Best guess, based on previous projects Best guess, based on previous projects

25 QUESTION: What should Fokker Management take into account in the quotation to AUK? What should Fokker Management take into account in the quotation to AUK?

26 ANSWER: part of a PLAN! what is the ‘cost vs. price’? (price = cost + profit) what is the ‘cost vs. price’? (price = cost + profit) what total price is the customer (AUK) prepared to pay? what total price is the customer (AUK) prepared to pay? do we have the money to amortize the non-recurring costs & capital investments? do we have the money to amortize the non-recurring costs & capital investments? can government provide assistance (development and financing credit)? can government provide assistance (development and financing credit)? over how many aircraft to we do that (business case analysis)? over how many aircraft to we do that (business case analysis)? what risks does Fokker incur and what bottlenecks are there and what are the solutions? what risks does Fokker incur and what bottlenecks are there and what are the solutions? how familiar are we with the technology and how much development is needed? how familiar are we with the technology and how much development is needed? do we have the specialist people needed or can we train new people in time? do we have the specialist people needed or can we train new people in time? what is the likelihood of quality problems and too late delivery (penalties and loss of reputation)? what is the likelihood of quality problems and too late delivery (penalties and loss of reputation)? is our materials partner (TCAC) reliable regarding their share? is our materials partner (TCAC) reliable regarding their share?

27 Risks, J-nose development tight schedule tight schedule new customer new customer new technology new technology data Airbus/BAe not on time, loads late data Airbus/BAe not on time, loads late

28 Why then the J-nose development? Entry ticket to A380 => much bigger volume

29 PHASING 1. Demonstrate feasibility of application / Prototyping 2. Submit and negotiate proposal 3. Full scale development

30 Plan=>Do=> Check: Problem: material does not satisfy requirements During the design phase (the end of 1998) after Ten Cate tests: the glass/PPS composite material proved not to satisfy the strength requirements after prolonged exposure to moisture and extremes of temperatures These test were never concluded in the pre- study phase, owing to a number of different circumstances

31 QUESTION: How to cope with a great project setback? How to cope with a great project setback?

32 ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=> ACT: Crisis management! Inform client quickly and discuss route forward: creates commitment and confidence to work together in finding a solution Inform client quickly and discuss route forward: creates commitment and confidence to work together in finding a solution Form crisis team made up of one’s own experts + client + externals (including TU’s) Form crisis team made up of one’s own experts + client + externals (including TU’s) analysis cause / effect analysis cause / effect brainstorm solutions + selection brainstorm solutions + selection actions definition / allocation actions definition / allocation 2x /week progress monitoring/co-ordination with parties: 2x /week progress monitoring/co-ordination with parties: Keep own management well informed Keep own management well informed

33 Problem: material does not satisfy requirements Technical solution: –Quickly weigh up different alternatives: A different fibre: the more costly but stronger S- glass instead of E-glass. Not feasible in the short time that was available Different ‘sizing’ (type of bonding agent) between the fibre and the resin. Improvements to strength proved feasible but drawbacks in processability later emerged

34 The A /600 J-nose

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36 Assembly, welding ribs/stiffeners

37 Weld quality, J-nose outer surface

38 Lessons learned

39 1)For the introduction of truly new technology, you need: - a customer product champion - a good plan and control - a fall back scenario + support - be prepared for crisis management

40 2) Everybody together: Co-location in Hoogeveen Optimum Team Work

41 3) Strategy follows opportunity opportunity: welded fixed wing l/e Airbus A pressurized floors Gulfstream GV welded MUC door Fokker control surfaces 2000

42 first application: limited volume on ‘inboard J-nose’ A /600 first application: limited volume on ‘inboard J-nose’ A /600 4) Start small and have potential for growth followed by growth: ‘J-nose’ on full A380 mid- & outboard wing

43 First application: A /600

44 A380 J-nose

45 improved concept: improved concept: second generation welding tools and welding strip second generation welding tools and welding strip improved press- forming of ribs improved press- forming of ribs large volume production large volume production

46 Stork Fokker AESP, Hoogeveen composites

47 A380 wing (Broughton, UK) Photo courtesy Airbus

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49 Case 2 : DUT 2004 Race Car Design & Build & Race Ultra light weight design principle Ultra light weight design principle Highest effort in body design & production and Engine tuning, OK Highest effort in body design & production and Engine tuning, OK Plan=>Do=> Check: Plan=>Do=> Check: Machined parts designed and ordered too late! No capacity anymore at suppliers. Machined parts designed and ordered too late! No capacity anymore at suppliers. Threat: Too late assembly, no time to test Threat: Too late assembly, no time to test Question: What should we do now???

50 ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=> ACT: Crisis management! Analyse the Critical Path => Turning & Milling of relative simple alu parts Analyse the Critical Path => Turning & Milling of relative simple alu parts Form crisis team of own + externals (Fokker coaches) Form crisis team of own + externals (Fokker coaches) brainstorm solutions + selection: BUY Lathe and Milling machine and train DUT team members! brainstorm solutions + selection: BUY Lathe and Milling machine and train DUT team members! actions definition / allocation actions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoring frequent progress monitoring RESULT : car ready just in time for tests and race!

51 Elevators Rudder Case 3: G650 thermoplastic control surfaces

52 First primary structure: GV pressure floors First welded assembly: MUC door Fo First large scale assembly: Welded fixed wing leading edges A340 Co-consolidated panels, beams Welded control surfaces First series production: Fairchild Dornier ribs Follow-up development: A380 outboard fixed leading edge Ca/PEI Glass/PPS Ca/PPS Ca/PEKK & PEEK Ca/PPS Ca/PEI

53 Assembly: welding Ribs: press forming Design studies: dimensioning, certification, materials&processes Spars: co-consolidation Skins: co-consolidation CVO Technology development project ‘thermoplastic control surfaces’ New material

54 Problem erupted: first product not OK Late design because of late customer inputs Late design because of late customer inputs Bad Welds Bad Welds Contour not OK Contour not OK Plan=>Do=> Check: Plan=>Do=> Check: Root Cause : Tooling too weak, long lead time Root Cause : Tooling too weak, long lead time Threat: Too late assembly, & delivery Threat: Too late assembly, & delivery Question: What should we do now???

55 ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=> ACT: IMPROVISE and BRUTE FORCE Analyse the Critical Path => Tooling needs to be upgraded Analyse the Critical Path => Tooling needs to be upgraded Form crisis team Form crisis team brainstorm solutions + selection: Re-inforce tooling by temporary stiffeners brainstorm solutions + selection: Re-inforce tooling by temporary stiffeners switch to 24/7 production with frequent checks switch to 24/7 production with frequent checks actions definition / allocation actions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoring frequent progress monitoring RESULT : First shipsets just in time for static tests and first flight!

56 Robot welding after improvements

57 Dec 2008: welding FAA approved

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59 Gulfstream 650 Savannah, Sept 2009

60 Wat leren we hier van Elk project kan niet zonder een projectplan JUIST voor R&D omdat dat nieuw is: Elk project kan niet zonder een projectplan JUIST voor R&D omdat dat nieuw is: Breek je SCOPE op in meetbare DELIVERABLES Breek je SCOPE op in meetbare DELIVERABLES Zet duidelijk je MILESTONES neer, met speling op het eind Zet duidelijk je MILESTONES neer, met speling op het eind Plan je ACTIVITEITEN qua logica en samen met Murphy: zorg ook voor plan B voor elk risico Plan je ACTIVITEITEN qua logica en samen met Murphy: zorg ook voor plan B voor elk risico Gebruik ervaring voor inschatting van duur en haalbaarheid Gebruik ervaring voor inschatting van duur en haalbaarheid Doe het samen (Visual Plan) en check het Kritieke Pad (er is er altijd 1!) Doe het samen (Visual Plan) en check het Kritieke Pad (er is er altijd 1!) Control hoort er altijd bij; PLAN>DO>CHECK>ACT (elke week / dag), en wees voorbereid op Crisis Management Control hoort er altijd bij; PLAN>DO>CHECK>ACT (elke week / dag), en wees voorbereid op Crisis Management Blijf er voor gaan als TEAM, help elkaar en schakel! Blijf er voor gaan als TEAM, help elkaar en schakel!

61 Wat gaan jullie NU anders doen? Formula Student Formula Student Formula Zero Formula Zero Eco Runner Eco Runner Nova Bike Nova Bike Human Powered Team Human Powered Team Zonneboot Zonneboot ANDER eigen project ANDER eigen project


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